In today’s briefing:
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29Dec23); CNOOC & Telcos to the BUY Side, Tracker Fund Sold Bigly
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Meldia DC, Boart Longyear, Orecorp, Symbio, Shidax, Hollysys
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Fujitsu General, Swire Pacific, Li Ning, IJJT
- Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 29 Dec 23): Renewables Are a BIG NET BUY This Week
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Dec 23): STAY Long Hs Vs As, Wide Premia in Renewables Look Vulnerable
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29Dec23); CNOOC & Telcos to the BUY Side, Tracker Fund Sold Bigly
- SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis. Hs up vs As quite strongly. Liquid Hs even better.
- SOUTHBOUND saw HK$1.2bn of net IN-flows in the 3-day week to 29 Dec. Total flows were HK$88bn.
- Bullish end to year for SOUTHBOUND owners but they did not mark the close. They were, however, big buyers of high-div SOEs.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Meldia DC, Boart Longyear, Orecorp, Symbio, Shidax, Hollysys
- I tally 50 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals discussed this week: Seedheiwa (1739 JP)‘s (now Meldia DC) Tender Offer; and Boart Longyear (BLY AU)‘s ignominious exit.
- Key updates took place on: Orecorp (ORR AU), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), IJTT (7315 JP), Shidax Corp (4837 JP), Ohizumi Mfg (6618 JP), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).
Last Week in Event SPACE: Fujitsu General, Swire Pacific, Li Ning, IJJT
- The BIG Risk is that Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) sells its stake in Fujitsu General (6755 JP) to someone in a below-market tender offer.
- Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) may still see more outperformance from its latest buyback. But it’s up ~29% since the company announced it was buying both the As and Bs.
- Li Ning (2331 HK)‘s shares continue to edge up after its founder recently increased its stake.
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 29 Dec 23): Renewables Are a BIG NET BUY This Week
- The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
- Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 18.7bn of A-shares on stronger average activity. BIG net buying flows on Weds and Thursday.
- Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Dec 23): STAY Long Hs Vs As, Wide Premia in Renewables Look Vulnerable
- The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
- SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp.
- STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.
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