In today’s briefing:
- Fuji Soft (9749) – Much Better Governance Process But The Stock Has Run Too Far
- Japan – Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light
- Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jan) – Shinko Electric, Benefit One, T&K Toka, Taisho, IJTT, IRC, Weiqiao
- IRC Limited (1029 HK): Closing Date Extended as the Risk/Reward Turns Unattractive
- KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in June
- EQD | NIFTY Rising But SHORT Trade Possible From Friday…
- Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements
- Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$1.3bn One-Way; Some New Names in the Expected Changes List
- Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024): Renewable Energy-Related Names Sold
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still the Biggest Buys
Fuji Soft (9749) – Much Better Governance Process But The Stock Has Run Too Far
- After 3D Investment Partners bought a large slug of Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) in early 2022, the company started a review of governance and capital allocation.
- The company updated investors in August, and bought in 4 listed subs in November-December 2023. The August update suggested a Q1 2024 decision on use/ownership of real estate.
- The Final Report is due in a month. In the meantime, the stock rallied Friday off a news article suggesting the Board was reviewing take-private proposals. Yes, but…
Japan – Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light
- Some stocks have continued to underperform the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios next month.
- Stocks that were expected to be deleted (but could now be safe) have outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) over the last couple of weeks.
- There has been two-way flow in a lot of stocks with market participants increasing and covering short positions as the stock prices have moved around.
Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jan) – Shinko Electric, Benefit One, T&K Toka, Taisho, IJTT, IRC, Weiqiao
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads – Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Irc Ltd (1029 HK), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU).
- Lowest spreads – Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Benesse Holdings (9783 JP), Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP).
IRC Limited (1029 HK): Closing Date Extended as the Risk/Reward Turns Unattractive
- Irc Ltd (1029 HK) notes that the offeror (Nikolai Levitskii) and acceptances reached 35.77% at the first closing date, materially short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition.
- The offeror has extended the closing date by 39 days (30 business days) to 20 February, the last day the offer can become or be declared unconditional.
- The rise in iron ore prices and a light offer pose challenges. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable as the upside (5.4% spread) outweighs the downside (20.5% to the undistributed price).
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in June
- Less than halfway through the review period, we see four changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
- The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.14-6 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 3.6-12 days of ADV.
- There are small shorts on the potential inclusions while short interest on the potential deletions varies from 5-10 days of ADV and 1.7-8.2% of free float.
EQD | NIFTY Rising But SHORT Trade Possible From Friday…
- The NIFTY Index closed up last week (CC=+1), it is not overbought yet but it could become so at the end of this week (Friday).
- Resistance begins at 22280/22800, these are the price areas from where SHORT trades can be initiated (target: 1 weeks reversal, close trade at Close).
- Covering LONG holdings with Covered CALLs is also possible, Strikes should be =>22800.
Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements
- The Scheme Meeting for PSP’s acquisition of Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) will be held on 30 January and Costa Group could stop trading after the close on 8 February.
- Strike Energy (STX AU), SiteMinder (SDR AU) and Audinate (AD8 AU) are potential inclusions to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at an ad hoc rebalance.
- For the stocks that are not added at the ad hoc rebalance, there is a very high probability of S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) inclusion at the March rebalance.
Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$1.3bn One-Way; Some New Names in the Expected Changes List
- SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
- In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the June 2024 index rebal event.
- I continue to expect 5 changes for SSE 50 and 18 changes for SSE 180 but some of the names have changed since my last insight.
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024): Renewable Energy-Related Names Sold
- The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
- Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 2.4bn of A-shares on decent average activity.
- Renewables and Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) were the big net sells on the week.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still the Biggest Buys
- SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis, still.
- SOUTHBOUND saw HK$6.8bn of net OUT-flows in the week to 12 Jan 2024. Total flows were HK$118bn.
- SOUTHBOUND saw large net selling of ETFs (unwinding Week 1) and large net buying of high-div SOEs like CNOOC, China Mobile/Telecom/Unicom, and coal names.
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