In today’s briefing:
- Foreign Room Race for MSCI Re-Inclusion: SK Telecom Is Unexpectedly Rising
- Jiangnan Group (1366 HK): Chairman/CEO’s Privatisation Offer at HK$0.40
- Pushpay Holdings: ACC & Nikko Say No To Scheme
- KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes in April & June
- Nitro Software: KKR’s Offer Unconditional. This Is Potentia’s For The Taking
- Pushpay (PPH NZ): Proxy Advisors Say Yes but Several Shareholders Say No
- Quiddity TWSE Div+ Capping Flows March 2023: Final Minute Changes to Expectations
- Origin Energy (ORG AU): Recut Deal Is a Win-Win
- Sibanye-Stillwater Raids New Century Resources (NCZ AU)
- Quiddity TWSE 50 & 100 Mar 23 Final Expectations: There Could Be a Surprise Index Change!
Foreign Room Race for MSCI Re-Inclusion: SK Telecom Is Unexpectedly Rising
- Looking at the recent pattern, SKT’s fast-rising is quite noticeable. Its foreign room rose to 12.08%. On the other hand, KT’s foreign room growth seems to be slowing somewhat.
- SKT’s pace is fast. If the current pace continues, there will be even the possibility of inclusion with a full adjustment factor of 1.0, exceeding 25%, by the August review.
- We should design a momentum trading setup targeting the point when SKT’s foreign room decline trend will be reflected into an MSCI re-inclusion momentum.
Jiangnan Group (1366 HK): Chairman/CEO’s Privatisation Offer at HK$0.40
- Jiangnan (1366 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from Mr Chu Hui (Chairman and CEO) at HK$0.40 per share, a 107.3% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$0.193 on 13 February).
- The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake will be supportive.
- The price is final and attractive in the context of historical prices and multiples. The scheme meeting is likely in mid-May. At last close, the gross spread is 12.7%.
Pushpay Holdings: ACC & Nikko Say No To Scheme
- The Scheme Meeting for BGH/Sixth Street’s NZ$1.34/share Offer for church donor management play Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ) will take place on the 3 March.
- Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC), holding 6.2% of shares out, said it will vote against the Scheme. Nikko Asset Management (1.4%) also said they will reject the Offer.
- Shares have wobbled and are now 5.5% adrift of terms. BGH/Sixth Street still has the flexibility to bump.
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes in April & June
- Samyang Foods (003230 KS) will replace Hyundai Greenfood (005440 KS) in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the close on 12 April.
- We expect DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) will replace Meritz Securities (008560 KS) in early April.
- Then we expect another 3 changes at the regular rebalance in June. The potential adds have moved sharply higher recently and there are flows from other index trackers too.
Nitro Software: KKR’s Offer Unconditional. This Is Potentia’s For The Taking
- Alludo has declared its Offer of A$2.15 cash per Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) share free from all remaining conditions.
- Separately, Potentia’s due diligence is expected to conclude tomorrow, the 22 February, with the expectation it bumps its current offer of A$2.00/share.
- Currently trading at A$2.20 per share suggesting limited upside from here.
Pushpay (PPH NZ): Proxy Advisors Say Yes but Several Shareholders Say No
- Shareholders representing around 12.6% of outstanding shares have stated that they will vote against Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)’s NZ$1.34 offer from Sixth Street/BGH (scheme vote on 3 March).
- The NO votes will need a less than 63% turnout to block the scheme. A 5% bump (NZ$1.41) would be in line with the IE’s valuation mid-point at current FX.
- Sixth Street/BGH have taken issue with the IE’s valuation (unsuitable FX rates and optimistic forecasts) and have got proxy advisors’ support. Therefore, a bump is not a sure thing.
Quiddity TWSE Div+ Capping Flows March 2023: Final Minute Changes to Expectations
- The index constituent weights of the TWSE Div+ Index will be capped during the upcoming March 2023 Index quarterly index review.
- Previously, it looked like there were going to be no flows. However, now my expectations have changed, as of Monday’s close (they weren’t going to change as of Friday).
- In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s expectations for index flows resulting from these events.
Origin Energy (ORG AU): Recut Deal Is a Win-Win
- Origin Energy (ORG AU) has disclosed a revised non-binding proposal from Brookfield/EIG. The headline price has been lowered by -1.1% from A$9.00 to A$8.90 per share.
- Under the revised proposal, shareholders’ first 100,000 shares get A$8.90. Beyond that ownership, the offer is A$4.334 plus US$3.194 per share (currently worth A$8.99 per share).
- While the recut introduces FX rate risk, the average implied value is A$9.01 since 10 November. Both the offeror and the Board seem keen to get a binding offer.
Sibanye-Stillwater Raids New Century Resources (NCZ AU)
- Sibanye-Stillwater (SGL SJ), the holder of 19.9% of shares, has made an off-market takeover for Queensland zinc miner New Century Resources (NCZ AU) at $1.10/share, a 42.9% premium to last close.
- Sibanye-Stillwater said it was concerned about the change in the strategic direction of NCZ under the current management.
- Concurrently, Sibanye-Stillwater has made an on-market buy order for 10.92% (14.4mn shares) of shares out to take its stake to ~30%. Shares closed at $1.095. ~32mn shares changed hands.
Quiddity TWSE 50 & 100 Mar 23 Final Expectations: There Could Be a Surprise Index Change!
- The reference period for the March 2023 index review for TWSE 50 and 100 indices just came to an end on 20 February.
- Previously, it looked like there would not be any index changes during the March 2023 review for these two indices.
- However, now it looks like there could be a change.
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