In today’s briefing:
- Exploring Fresh Flow Trading Prospects for SK Square: Targeting Exclusion from KOSPI 200 IT
- Start of Tender Offer
Exploring Fresh Flow Trading Prospects for SK Square: Targeting Exclusion from KOSPI 200 IT
- KRX did not acknowledge any business relevance between SK Square and the Semicon industry, leading to its exclusion from the KRX Semicon after the GICS change.
- We should consider the strong possibility that this same approach will be applied in the upcoming December KOSPI 200 IT rebalancing.
- If we observe a somewhat unusual downward trend in SK Square’s price from the 15th, this could be seen as a hint foretelling the announcement of SK Square’s exclusion.
Start of Tender Offer
- The $26.00/share cash offer of Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO UN) for Swedish Olink Holding (OLK US) started on 31 October. The 74% premium reflects that high-growth, positive adjusted EBITDA targets are rare.
- The offer values Olink at ~12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue vs. 6.4x median of peers. Irrevocables total 66%, but the minimum acceptance condition requires acceptances from a high 70.6% of float.
- Barring any unforeseen circumstances, such as regulatory action, I anticipate the deal closing and set my TP at $26/share. Gross spread is 4.81%.
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