In today’s briefing:
- EQD | Nikkei 225 Flying High, Don’t Burn Your Wings….
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: IntelliCentrics, Chilled & Frozen Logistics, Boral, Orecorp, Link Admin, JSR
- Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) – Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin
- HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan’s Big Dividend
- EQD | The Hang Seng Index’s Crucial Fork Is at the End of March
EQD | Nikkei 225 Flying High, Don’t Burn Your Wings….
- The Nikkei 225 INDEX has been rallying for >3 months, rising more than 28%. Is it too much, too fast?
- Short-Term, if we look at the Market Reversal Matrix’s SHORT WEEKLY model for the index, it looks like it could either reverse within a couple of weeks, or stall.
- Look for the ~41000 resistance area to place SHORT or hedge your LONG positions.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: IntelliCentrics, Chilled & Frozen Logistics, Boral, Orecorp, Link Admin, JSR
- I tally 52 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals were discussed this week on Smartkarma: IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) disposal/winding-up/special dividend arb; and Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)‘s hostile Offer.
- Key updates took place on: Boral Ltd (BLD AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), and JSR Corp (4185 JP).
Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) – Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH) launches a US$78 million IPO.
- Event-Driven developments: Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK), Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK).
HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface
- On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.
- The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely China Mobile (941 HK)) were approached.
- The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan’s Big Dividend
- The trade of being short Fast Retailing (9983 JP) vs Nikkei 225 or Sector Basket is fundamentally slightly short Nikkei 225 froth.
- Giordano (709 HK)‘s SGM will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities vote. Digging a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, provides some (not-altogether) surprising results.
- AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) intends to launch a Tender Offer on Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) without having contacted C&F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum!
EQD | The Hang Seng Index’s Crucial Fork Is at the End of March
- The Hang Seng Index is at a turning point: investors want to know if the current rally can continue into April.
- Our MONTHLY seasonal matrix model indicates that to see the index rallying in April, usually we should have a negative close in March, so this week will be crucial.
- Buy between 16281 and 15924 to ride the continuation of the rally in April.
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