In today’s briefing:
- DCM Takeover for Keiyo (8168) – Pretty Easy Deal
- Keiyo (8168 JP): DCM’s JPY1,300 Tender Offer
- EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Forecast for October: Not So Good…
- EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Shutdown or Meltdown?
DCM Takeover for Keiyo (8168) – Pretty Easy Deal
- Today after the close, DCM Holdings (3050 JP) announced it would launch a friendly takeover by Tender Offer for Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP)
- This is totally not a surprise. They signed a Business and Capital Alliance in 2017. DCM bought more at a premium last autumn. This takeover was obvious in the long-term.
- There are enough friendly holders to get this done. Activism would be hard unless it was really cheap, which it does not seem to be, but process wasn’t great.
Keiyo (8168 JP): DCM’s JPY1,300 Tender Offer
- Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) has recommended DCM Holdings (3050 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,300 per share, a 58.3% premium to the undisturbed price (29 September).
- The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 35.68% ownership ratio.
- Irrevocables represent a 0.88% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition (lower limit) requires a 50.4% minority acceptance rate, which is achievable as the offer price represents a ten-year high.
EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Forecast for October: Not So Good…
- The Nikkei 225 INDEX closed September down at 31857.62, CC=-3 (3 months down). Did not double-bottom at August’s lows (31674), but is starting to be OVERSOLD MONTHLY (time perspective).
- A new Market Reversal Matrix Seasonality model is hinting that October 2023 probably will not see a rally/reversal, but just below-average gains (if any).
- One possible scenario (due to concomitant WEEKLY OVERSOLD conditions) is to see the Nikkei up early in October, then down again, closing the month with small gains or a loss.
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Shutdown or Meltdown?
- Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
- Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
- We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces
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