In today’s briefing:
- Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP): Historical Post-Offering Performance Does Not Look Good At All
- NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two’s Company; Three’s A Crowd
- UPDATE: Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving to TOPIX. Forward Earnings/Aggressive Forecast Surprise
- Cainiao IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline
- Setting up to Target Exclusion Stock Post Doosan Robotics’ KOSPI 200 Fast Entry
Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP): Historical Post-Offering Performance Does Not Look Good At All
- Midsize residential JREIT Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP) (“DSLIC“) launched a follow-on equity offering to partially fund their recently-announced acquisitions.
- The primary offer quantity will be 139,047 units and there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 6,953 units.
- In this insight, we take a closer look at the details of this offering and the historical performance of DSLIC’s previous follow-on equity offerings.
NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two’s Company; Three’s A Crowd
- There should be two changes for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in March. That could increase to three, but that would take some big price moves from now to January.
- Impact on the potential changes is pretty large at over 6 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers. The impact is over 11 days of delivery volume.
- Inclusion of Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) in the F&O segment before January could lead to another change.
UPDATE: Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving to TOPIX. Forward Earnings/Aggressive Forecast Surprise
- Over the weekend I wrote about Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP)‘s move to TSE Prime and then move to TOPIX. I noted earnings would be out 3 October.
- I talked about the possibility of a surprise. They had revised full-year to end-Sep to ¥2bn. They got ¥2.05bn.
- But after growing revenue 79% last year, and growing net profit 101%, this year they expect revs +60% and Net Profit +144%.
Cainiao IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline
- Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) has filed an application proof to list on the HKEX (388 HK) and could raise US$1bn at a valuation between US$15bn-20bn.
- Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) could get Fast Entry to the HSCI and be included in Southbound Stock Connect once the price stabilisation period is complete.
- Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion in June. Earlier inclusion will depend on the IPO timing, size and allocation to strategic/cornerstone investors.
Setting up to Target Exclusion Stock Post Doosan Robotics’ KOSPI 200 Fast Entry
- Doosan Robotics has the potential to rise up to ₩104,000 on the listing date. The market cap would reach ₩6.74T, which fulfills the criteria for KOSPI 200 fast entry
- Based on this calculation, Zinus had the lowest average daily market cap during the previous rebalancing screening period. Therefore, Zinus will be excluded due to the inclusion of Doosan Robotics.
- KOSPI 200 passive trackers will need to conduct rebalancing trading reflecting this ad-hoc change on the closing price of November 9th.
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