In today’s briefing:
- Couche-Tard Execs in Tokyo, “Hoping” For Meetings But Really There To Hold a Press Conference
- Samty (187A) Deal Looks Somewhat Vulnerable to Potential Interlopers
- S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Tower (TWR) Replaces Arvida (ARV)
- Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK): Beijing Capital Land Offer?
- Event Driven: Special Call Auction in Indian Holding Companies
- Connecting the Dots Between Kum Yang’s Rights Offer & Global Index November Review
- Korea Zinc’s 2.4% Treasury Shares – Devil Is In the Legal Loophole
- Charter Hall Bumps With Final HPI Bid
- Waystar Holding (WAY US): Clear WAY to One Global Index, Rocky Road to the Other.
- Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK): An Offer from Beijing Capital Land?
Couche-Tard Execs in Tokyo, “Hoping” For Meetings But Really There To Hold a Press Conference
- Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)‘s CEO, former CEO, CFO, and founder were in Tokyo today giving a press conference about their trip and designs on Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
- There was some passive-aggressive behaviour. Their bid was better than 7&i’s plan. They said it was a high price. They said they wanted to meet management, the ITOs, the government.
- None of that will win the hearts and minds of the Special Committee.
Samty (187A) Deal Looks Somewhat Vulnerable to Potential Interlopers
- The Hillhouse (Asia-based global PE firm) deal for SAMTY HOLDINGS Co Ltd (187A JP) has seen Samty shares trade tight to terms in the first three days of trading.
- Some 7.5mm shares have traded. This is only 16% of shares out, but it is a much larger portion of Maximum Real World Float.
- This begs the question of whether the deal could be put in jeopardy by the actions of one or two shareholders.
S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Tower (TWR) Replaces Arvida (ARV)
- Arvida (ARV NZ) will be deleted from the S&P/NZX 50 Index following its acquisition by Stonepeak Alps BidCo. Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) will be added to the index.
- Passive NZX50 Index trackers will need to buy nearly 18m shares of Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) – that is over 26 days of ADV.
- There has been a lot of positioning in Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) since Stonepeak’s offer for Arvida (ARV NZ). There should be enough supply for the passive trackers.
Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK): Beijing Capital Land Offer?
- Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) (BCG), a commercial property developer in China, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
- Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK) (BCL) holds a 65.72% stake, having secured majority control in Juda International, as BCG was then known, in November 2013.
- BCG has been a forgettable stock since 4Q16. Expect a forthcoming Scheme from BCL, perhaps at ~HK$0.75/share.
Event Driven: Special Call Auction in Indian Holding Companies
- A special call auction shall be held on October 28, 2024 by BSE & NSE to discover hidden value in Investment Holding Companies.
- BSE and NSE came out with the list of 8-9 Companies that are eligible for this special session.
- We calculated the upside left in these companies using the Current price with 30% discount: 3 Companies with more than 100% upside.
Connecting the Dots Between Kum Yang’s Rights Offer & Global Index November Review
- Personally, the key trading angle is Kum Yang’s exit, which could slash entry costs for the capital raise, with the review announcement dropping as stock rights trading starts.
- Along with the usual hit to the pricing from index trackers unloading for rebalancing, there’s a strong chance their sell orders might also include stock rights.
- From an entry cost perspective, this November review could trigger a sharp, short-term drop in costs due to stock rights dumping, similar to what we saw with CJ CGV.
Korea Zinc’s 2.4% Treasury Shares – Devil Is In the Legal Loophole
- Devil is in the legal loophole. Issuing treasury shares to employees as bonuses is an exception that is not bound by the condition of ‘6 months after treasury shares acquisition.
- It would be nearly impossible for Korea Zinc to sell 2.4% of its treasury stock to an external friendly force and transform it into a friendly stake by February 2025.
- Although MBK/Young Poong Alliance has the advantage right now in this M&A battle for Korea Zinc, it is by no means over.
Charter Hall Bumps With Final HPI Bid
- Back on the 9th September, pub play Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) announced – and summarily rejected – a A$3.65/share cash Offer from Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU).
- Charter Hall has now increased terms to A$3.85/share (best & final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%.
- HPI’s reported response? “While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value.“
Waystar Holding (WAY US): Clear WAY to One Global Index, Rocky Road to the Other.
- Waystar Holding (WAY US) is forecasted to pass the mcap and fcap thresholds for the small-cap segment and get added at the November 2024 review.
- The company currently passes the higher regional mcap and fcap thresholds for the small-cap segment at the December 2024 review.
- Waystar Holding (WAY US) risks failing the fcap threshold at the December 2024 review if the stock price falls back to the IPO price levels.
Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK): An Offer from Beijing Capital Land?
- Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) entered a trading halt based on the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
- It is likely that Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK), the largest shareholder, is launching an offer primarily to acquire the stake from Sino-Ocean Group (3377 HK) receivers.
- As this is a forced sale, an offer of around HK$0.70-0.75, a 20%- 30% premium to the last close, would be sufficient to gain an irrevocable from the receivers.
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