In today’s briefing:
- CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Takeover Rumours
- Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side
- EQD | Nikkei 225 What’s Up Next: Up or Down?
- Bondalti/Ercros: Board Will Seek a Sweetening
CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Takeover Rumours
- Another week, another rumoured (from Bloomberg) takeover. This time it’s for clean energy play CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK).
- Back in 2020, CGN was subject to a potential privatisation from its SOE-parent – see CGN New Energy: The Latest SOE Clean Energy Play – but it failed to materialise.
- A couple of years back, a “valuation system with Chinese characteristics” had the media discussing whether this implied a premium for SOEs and companies aligned with national goals.
Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side
- Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
- This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider’s data, and one Very Large Flow.
- I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached.
EQD | Nikkei 225 What’s Up Next: Up or Down?
- The Nikkei 225 Index last week bounced back, after a 2-weeks down pullback.
- The index is at a fork in our view: it could go higher from here, but we would like to see a sustained, multi-week rally to be convinced.
- If doubt about this potential rally continuation is strong, target the 40500-40800 price area to place SHORT trades against the index.
Bondalti/Ercros: Board Will Seek a Sweetening
- Ercros (ECR SM) ‘s advisors will seek an improvement in Bondalti’s €3.6/share offer, which comes amidst a sharp decline in EBITDA compared to 2022, and launched at the bottom of the cycle.
- An improved offer price of €4.4/share, a 22% increase, would represent 6x EV/25e EBITDA, 11.3x 25e P/E, and thus could gain support from the Board.
- Gross spread is 1.25%. Considering the potential for an improved offer price, I’d be long.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
