In today’s briefing:
- CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
- SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square
- Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked
- Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: US$1.2bn Collective One-Way Flows but Momentum Is Negative
- A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air
- KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive
- EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.
- Hana Micron: Split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron
- Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Unattractive Takeover Offer
- Astera Labs (ALAB US): Global Index Migration and Upweight Anticipated in February and May 2025.
CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.
- CATL (300750 CH) was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.
- The CATL (300750 CH) H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) ETF. Inclusion in the HSCEI and HSI will take longer.
SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square
- SK Inc plans to use SK Hynix as a dividend machine, boosting payouts to ₩3 trillion, and if it absorbs SK Square, it could pocket ₩600 billion—doubling SK Telecom’s dividends.
- SK Inc will likely use ₩5 trillion from the SK Telecom deal for a tender offer, boosting its stake in SK Square to 60-70% before merging to minimize dilution.
- The SK Telecom deal and potential SK Square tender offer could be the main narrative driving SK Group stocks this year, making SK Square a key momentum play.
Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked
- Timee Inc (215A JP) listed in Japan on 26th July 2024 after raising US$300m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 21st Jan 2025.
- Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
- In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.
Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: US$1.2bn Collective One-Way Flows but Momentum Is Negative
- NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
- In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.
- We see two changes for the NIFTY 50 index and five changes for the NIFTY 100 index.
A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air
- An M&A fight for T’Way Air has officially erupted as Daemyung Sono Group sent a letter to the current management requesting several management improvement measures including resignation of existing management.
- Currently, T’Way Air’s largest shareholders are T’Way Holdings and Yelimdang which combined have 30.07% stake in T’Way Air. Daemyung Sono is the second largest shareholder with a 26.77% stake.
- From Daemyung Sono Chairman Seo Jun-Hyeok perspective, entering the aviation industry is attractive because it can create synergy with existing hotels and resort businesses.
KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive
- The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
- Over halfway through the review period, we forecast 39 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
- Three potential downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, four more potential downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.
- Familiar theme across a lot of names with prices either back to the lows of range over the last 2 months or having given back all of the stimulus gains.
- Call volumes back to normal levels making up 57% of all single-stock trading. High volumes for Tencent did not repeat this weak as Tencent trading settled back to normal levels.
- Materials were the strongest sector with the median stock rising just under 6%.
Hana Micron: Split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron
- Hana Micron Inc (067310 KS) announced its plan to split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron (a newly established company).
- Existing shareholders will receive shares of the two companies in equal proportions according to the split ratio which is 32.5% for Hana Semiconductor Holdings and 67.5% for Hana Micron.
- We remain negative on Hana Micron. The valuation of the company remains stretched. In addition, there are increasing concerns about the company’s new plan to split into two different companies.
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Unattractive Takeover Offer
- Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ) disclosed a conditional takeover offer from City Developments (CIT SP) at NZ$2.25, a 25.0% premium to the undisturbed price of NZ$1.80 (17 January).
- The key condition is a 90% minimum acceptance condition, which will be an issue as the offer is materially below NTA on a historical cost and market-value-based approach.
- CDL has three options to address shareholder resistance: lower the minimum acceptance threshold, increase the offer price, or continue extending the close.
Astera Labs (ALAB US): Global Index Migration and Upweight Anticipated in February and May 2025.
- Astera Labs (ALAB US) is expected to migrate from Small-cap to Standard at the February 2025 review as its price has soared ~100% since the last review.
- The security’s free float is forecasted to increase from 25% to 70% at the May 2025 review due to lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders. Passive fund demand expected is ~$570m.
- Astera Labs (ALAB US) can migrate from small-cap to all-world in September 2025 with a slight price increase. Probability of migration in March 2025 is small.
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