In today’s briefing:
- Canon (7751) Buyback Almost Done, TPX Selldown to Come = Trade Vs Ricoh or Basket
- IMAX China (1970 HK): Parent Privatisation
- Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity
- IMAX China (1970 HK): IMAX Corp’s Privatisation Offer
- Will Hana Financial Acquire KDB Life Insurance?
- EQD | S&P/ASX200: Ideas to Profit From a Directionless Market
Canon (7751) Buyback Almost Done, TPX Selldown to Come = Trade Vs Ricoh or Basket
- Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced a second buyback this fiscal year on 15 June. As discussed here previously, Canon buybacks are short, sharp, and sweet.
- The recent one should be done imminently (15 May start ended 13 July). 16 June start? (Note: Canon reports buyback results at 3pm local time, and did not report today).
- This time we have a double-setup with buyback ending and a large TOPIX sell on Canon on 28 July.
IMAX China (1970 HK): Parent Privatisation
- This morning (13 July), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK) announced a take-private transaction from its parent IMAX Corp (IMAX US) at HK$10/share.
- The Offer price is a 9.65% premium to last close but a 39.47% premium over the closing price on the last full trading day. Evidently, there was news leakage.
- IMAX US holds 71.63% in IMAX China, therefore the blocking stake at the Schene Meeting is 2.837% of shares out.
Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity
- Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.
- It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good.
- Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.
IMAX China (1970 HK): IMAX Corp’s Privatisation Offer
- IMAX China Holding (1970 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from IMAX Corp (IMAX US) at HK$10.00 per share, a 39.5% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$7.17 on 10 July).
- The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.
- The offer price is final. While the offer price is light compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, the deal will likely succeed.
Will Hana Financial Acquire KDB Life Insurance?
- On 13 July, it was reported in the local media that the Korea Development Bank selected Hana Financial as the preferred bidder for the sale of KDB Life Insurance.
- The potential overpaying for KDB Life and the rising delinquency rates of loans by all the major banks in Korea are likely to result in continued underperformance of Hana Financial.
- If Hana Financial is able to acquire KDB Life Insurance, this would boost Hana Financial as the 8th largest life insurance company in Korea in terms of asset size.
EQD | S&P/ASX200: Ideas to Profit From a Directionless Market
- The S&P/ASX 200 INDEX has been stuck in the 7000-7400 range for the past 16 weeks.
- If the index continues to be trendless for some more weeks, it’s possible to profit from repeatedly writing Covered Calls against ASX 200 index holdings.
- Strike target areas for Covered Calls begin in the 7319-7409 (July 20 expiry). Deeper OTM Strikes are safe, but the premiums are smaller.
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