In today’s briefing:
- Can Son-San Take Over Softbank Group Through Buybacks?
- JCNC Is Still Overstretched Vs. Astra
- MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes
- MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
Can Son-San Take Over Softbank Group Through Buybacks?
- On Thursday 8 December, an article showed up in Bloomberg suggesting Son-san had “increased his stake” as the company bought back shares, giving him more rights, “edging towards a buyout.”
- That is a stretch. He went from below one-third to above one-third, giving him an explicit veto on shareholder super-majority resolutions, but it’s minor. He now has 34.2%.
- The suggestion: if he got two-thirds, he could squeeze out minorities without a Tender Offer. Technically true, but not easy. I dig deeper and propose how it could be done.
JCNC Is Still Overstretched Vs. Astra
- Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.
- A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC’s inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.
- JCNC is expensive here – relative to historical values – and from an implied stub perspective.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes
- Filo Mining (FIL CN) and Tietto Minerals (TIE AU) are adds while Fresnillo (FRES LN), Galiano Gold (GAU US), Jaguar Mining (JAG CN) and Novo Resources (NVO CN) are deletes.
- One way turnover is estimated at 4.3% resulting in a one-way trade of US$163m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 24 stocks.
- Largest inflows are on Filo Mining (FIL CN) and Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU) while largest outflows are on Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN) and Centerra Gold (CG CN).
MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
- As expected, there are no adds or deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the December rebalance.
- There are free float and capping changes that will be implemented at the close on 16 December.
- One way turnover is estimated at 4.26% and will result in a one-way trade of US$31.5m.
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