In today’s briefing:
- Big M3 (2413) Partial TOB As Pasona Sells Control of Benefit One (2412): Really Interesting Dynamics
- I Like Big Bank Buybacks And I Cannot Lie
- Step-By-Step Guide to Spot Companies Postponing Dividend Base Date to April in Korea
- Benefit One (2412 JP): M3’s Partial Tender Offer
- CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Starting to Close the Gap
- Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Albert Teo Family/Dymon Asia’s Unconditional S$0.60 Offer
- KOSDAQ150 Rebalance in December 2023 Highlighted by Locals
- Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer
- Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr
Big M3 (2413) Partial TOB As Pasona Sells Control of Benefit One (2412): Really Interesting Dynamics
- Today after the close with Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) reporting earnings, M3 Inc (2413 JP) announced a Partial Tender Offer to buy 81.21-83.31mm shares of Benefit One at ¥1600/share.
- That cleans out Pasona, which owns 81.21mm shares. Or does it… Shareholder structure dynamics and the problems they cause later bear some detailed examination.
- This one is going to be a fun special sit.
I Like Big Bank Buybacks And I Cannot Lie
- Today, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) reported H1 earnings. Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) reported yesterday.
- Mizuho raised full-year NP guidance by ~5%, passing the Street. SMFG raised its FY NP guidance 12.2%, also beating the Street. MUFG didn’t raise guidance but H1 saw 71% progress.
- Today, SMFG raised its div, and both SMFG (¥150bn) and MUFG (¥400bn) announced buybacks. Cross-holding unwind progress is waaay lower than we’d like, but capital stronger as a result.
Step-By-Step Guide to Spot Companies Postponing Dividend Base Date to April in Korea
- We can check this on KIND, KRX’s disclosure site. As an example, SK Inc. disclosed this information on July 26, two weeks before the dividend record date, August 10.
- We can capture this information in English without the need for Korean. The disclosure title we must hunt is “Decision on Closure of Shareholder’s Registry (including Record Date) for Dividends.”
- The critical aspect here is that we need to identify disclosures from companies that still use the year’s last trading day as the dividend base date.
Benefit One (2412 JP): M3’s Partial Tender Offer
- Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) announced a partial tender offer from M3 Inc (2413 JP) at JPY1,600 per share, a 40.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The transaction facilitates Pasona Group (2168 JP)‘s exit. The offer is for a minimum of 81.2 million shares (51.16% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 87.3 million shares (55.00%).
- Irrevocables from Pasona represent a 51.16% ownership ratio, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is light vs. historical multiples and share prices.
CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Starting to Close the Gap
- With the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the index at the close on 8 December.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 9.66% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.36bn. There are 29 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
- The potential deletes have outperformed the potential adds over the last 6 months though there has been a narrowing of the gap recently. Position for a further narrowing.
Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Albert Teo Family/Dymon Asia’s Unconditional S$0.60 Offer
- Amara Holdings (AMA SP) has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from Dymon Asia and the Albert Teo Family at S$0.60 per share, a 30.4% premium to the last close price.
- On 17 June, Amara received a written notification from Mr Albert Teo Hock Chuan (CEO) and Ms Susan Teo Geok Tin (Company Secretary) that they are mulling an offer.
- The offer price is final. The offer is attractive and marginally below the ten-year high. Hitting the 90% compulsory acquisition threshold implies a minority acceptance rate of 79.3%.
KOSDAQ150 Rebalance in December 2023 Highlighted by Locals
- This article discusses the potential inclusions and exclusions of KOSDAQ150 rebalance in December 2023 (especially those that are highlighted by the locals).
- The potential inclusion candidates include Lunit, Shinsung Delta Tech, and JNTC. The eight potential inclusion candidates are up on average 122% YTD, sharply outperforming KOSDAQ in the same period.
- Stocks that are expected to be excluded in the KOSDAQ150 index include Aju IB Investment, HFR, Danal, and Sangsangin.
Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer
- Back in mid-June, hotel and investment property play Amara Holdings (AMA SP) gained 38% over three consecutive days on news of a possible Offer from its controlling shareholders.
- The Teo family controls ~51% of shares out. No price was mentioned. This development was discussed in Amara Holdings Gains On Possible Offer.
- After shares were halted on the 10th November, Amara has now announced a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share, a chunky 53.8% to undisturbed and a lifetime high.
Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr
- In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
- I do not see any changes for the DAX index in December 2023 but Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR) is not very far away from triggering a change.
- Separately, I see two changes for the MDAX index and two changes for the SDAX index.
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