In today’s briefing:
- Aoki Super (9977) MBO at ¥3,800/Share (All-Time High, 15x Forecast FCF)
- Kerry Express (KEX TB): Kerry Logistics (636 HK)’s In-Specie Triggers MTO
- Aoki Super (9977 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY3,800
- StubWorld: Hanmi Science’s Implied Stub Nearing All-Time Lows
Aoki Super (9977) MBO at ¥3,800/Share (All-Time High, 15x Forecast FCF)
- The family which owns and controls ubiquitous Nagoya supermarket chain Aoki Super (9977 JP) will acquire the 47% it does not own in an MBO.
- This appears to be an estate planning exercise, creating a context to hand off ownership from the 77yr old former CEO to his 44yr old son and current CEO.
- This comes in at a 44% premium, an all-time high price, and 15+x forecast FCF (even if the forecast looks a little light). This gets done easily.
Kerry Express (KEX TB): Kerry Logistics (636 HK)’s In-Specie Triggers MTO
- Last week Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (KLN) announced it would in-specie its entire 52.1% stake in Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) (KET).
- As S.F. Holding (002352 CH) holds a controlling 51.5% stake in KLN after the 2021 partial Offer, it will hold 26.8% in KET post-in-specie. That triggers an unconditional MTO.
- The MTO price will be THB5.50/share. The key regulatory approval is Thai SFC. That won’t be an issue.
Aoki Super (9977 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY3,800
- Aoki Super (9977 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY3,800 per share, a 43.9% premium to the undisturbed (5 January).
- The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 13.35% ownership ratio.
- Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 28.6% minority acceptance rate. This acceptance rate is achievable as the offer represents an all-time high.
StubWorld: Hanmi Science’s Implied Stub Nearing All-Time Lows
- A double dose of stubs this week as Hanmi Science (008930 KS) comes up “cheap” on my monitor.
- Preceding my comments on Hanmi are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
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