In today’s briefing:
- Activist Buys 7+% of Takeover Target Macromill (3978 JP)
- A Passive Flow Trading Event that Sparked Wild Price Action in Korea Is Happening Again
- TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$3.2bn Trade with BIG Impact
- Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – Small/Large Below-Market Tender Offer Buyback, Followed by Overhang
- Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Tsang Family’s Scheme
- Lotte Shopping and Potentially Others Are Shaping up as Fresh Picks for Dividend Arbitrage Plays
- EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Index Option Strategy -Combining Record Low Volatility with Buy-The-Dip
- [Quiddity Index] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: Up to 6 Changes Possible
- HK CEO & Director Dealings (17th Dec 2024): BeiGene, China Wantian, Super Hi Int’l/Haidilao
- Green Light from British Government
Activist Buys 7+% of Takeover Target Macromill (3978 JP)
- Today post-close, activist/engagement investor Oasis Management filed a new LSR on Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) owning 7.12% of shares as of 13-Dec-2024. Reason: Defend shareholder value, propose measures to management.
- That is 7.56-7.65% of effective voting/tender rights. It’s big enough to matter. Of course, the stock has not traded below terms once since full trading started post-announcement.
- And this was warned in CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) – Wrong Price, Wrong Register – Expect Activism or An Overbid. Shareholder structure REALLY matters.
A Passive Flow Trading Event that Sparked Wild Price Action in Korea Is Happening Again
- This event drew significant attention, causing unusual price action. From Sept 20 to Nov 29, corrections in the deletions far outpaced the KOSPI, with the trend holding across key checkpoints.
- We’re watching 4 stocks: Kumho Petro, Lotte Chemical, Posco DX, and EcoPro Materials. SK Bioscience and Enchem are close, with small price moves likely pushing them out.
- Based on past rebalancing patterns, proactive positions on these names could trigger strong price action. All except Enchem have listed futures and solid volume, making trading conditions favorable.
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$3.2bn Trade with BIG Impact
- There are 8 changes a side for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919TW) has an AUM of US$9.3bn.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 17.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$3.2bn. All adds and deletes have over 5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- The rebalance will be implemented over 8 trading days and the ETF started trading some stocks late last week and the rest from 17 December.
Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – Small/Large Below-Market Tender Offer Buyback, Followed by Overhang
- Today, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) announced a second buyback this year (first ¥100bn was announced in May, buying back 16.695mm shs (0.83%). This time, ~¥94bn via Own-Share Tender Offer.
- Three non-life insurers and two banks who together hold 6+% will sell a total of ~1.01% at ~10% below last. They will then sell the rest of their shares later.
- Cute, but not enough. Shin-Etsu is cash-rich, securities-rich, receivables and inventory-rich. And nearly ¥1trln of EBITDA. They are a key part of the tech infrastructure. They can borrow.
Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Tsang Family’s Scheme
- After Goldlion Holdings (533 HK), an apparel manufacturer/distributor, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, the obvious Offeror, by way of a Scheme, from the Tsang family (63.09% stakeholder).
- And that it’s exactly what unfolded. The Cancellation Price is $1.5232/share (declared final), a 24.85% premium to last price, but a punchy 71% premium to undisturbed.
- The long stop is the 30th September 2025. This will probably be completed in less than half the time. There will be a question mark over the low price-to-book multiple.
Lotte Shopping and Potentially Others Are Shaping up as Fresh Picks for Dividend Arbitrage Plays
- At today’s close, Lotte Shopping (023530 KS) shows solid contango for a basis trade, with LS Corp (006260 KS) next; the rest are too tight or dry.
- Lotte Shopping surprised the market today, changing its dividend record date to a board-set day, wiping out the backwardation that matched its dividend yield until yesterday.
- Lotte Shopping’s move could signal other stocks changing dividend dates, causing similar dislocations. With a 7% yield and solid SSF volume, it’s prime for aggressive dividend arbitrage.
EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Index Option Strategy -Combining Record Low Volatility with Buy-The-Dip
- The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has declined two weeks in a row. Quantitative analysis suggests that a trend reversal could occur soon.
- This Insight provides an option strategy based on the resistance and support levels identified in the quantitative Insight EQD | ASX 200 Presents a High-Probability Buy-The-Dip Opportunity
- Option liquidity and volatility analysis, including skew, term structure and put/call ratios are provided and used in strategy design.
[Quiddity Index] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: Up to 6 Changes Possible
- KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
- In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2025.
- We expect up to six ADDs and six DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2025 index rebal event based on the latest available data.
HK CEO & Director Dealings (17th Dec 2024): BeiGene, China Wantian, Super Hi Int’l/Haidilao
- The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
- Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
- The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: BeiGene (6160 HK), China Wantian Holdings (1854 HK), and Super Hi International Holding (9658 HK) / Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK).
Green Light from British Government
- Approval and Safeguards: The UK government approved EP Group’s £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with legally binding commitments to retain Royal Mail’s headquarters, tax residence, and universal service obligations.
- IDS faces declining mail volumes, delivery fines, and the need for operational reforms; EP Group aims to revitalize the company leveraging expertise in energy and logistics sectors.
- A done deal, in my view. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2025.
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