In today’s briefing:
- ACCC Sour on ANZ/Suncorp Bank Deal Makes for A Good Trade
- Pre-Positioning Targeting Solactive Global Lithium Index’s October Rebalancing
- Ramelius Bolts On Breaker
- MSCI India May QCIR: Potential Changes & Special Treatment of Adani Group Stocks
- Pushpay (PPH NZ): Revised Scheme Meeting on 27 April
- Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Production Issues Result in the Board Succumbing to Wyloo’s Offer
ACCC Sour on ANZ/Suncorp Bank Deal Makes for A Good Trade
- This morning, ACCC announced that it had released a “Statement of Preliminary Views” on the ANZ/Suncorp deal and sought further views.
- For now, the ACCC questions “the nature, likelihood, and extend of claimed public benefits” including synergies or claims regarding investment in Queensland.
- Based on my reading of the document, this view is likely to carry over through the final decision due mid-June 2023. That means there’s likely a trade here.
Pre-Positioning Targeting Solactive Global Lithium Index’s October Rebalancing
- LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI will remain in the index as top stocks of pack makers, respectively. Ecopro BM will almost certainly replace L&F in the category of Cathode.
- SK IE Technology will newly join the index with Separator’s top stock. On the other hand, Lotte Energy Materials and SKC are unlikely to be included.
- This event can be a critical inflection point in predicting the counter-flow for short positions against Ecopro BM and L&F in advance.
Ramelius Bolts On Breaker
- On the 20 March, gold play Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU) announced a Offer from Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) of 1 RMS for every 2.82 BRB shares.
- The all-scrip takeover Offer backs out an implied Offer price of A$0.403/share or a 38.9% premium to last close.
- The Offer is conditional on 50.1% tendering with 19.92% of shares out supportive. The first close is the 1 May.
MSCI India May QCIR: Potential Changes & Special Treatment of Adani Group Stocks
- Currently, we see 1 high probability inclusion and 2 high probability deletions from the MSCI India Index at the May QCIR. Plus there are stocks close to the cutoffs.
- There will be selling on two Adani Group stocks following a lowering of the Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF). That could increase if one of them is deleted from the index.
- As expected, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN) has continued to move higher post the placement and there could be more buying in the weeks ahead.
Pushpay (PPH NZ): Revised Scheme Meeting on 27 April
- Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)’s NZ$1.42 revised offer from Sixth Street/BGH is around the midpoint of the IE’s unchanged valuation range of NZ$1.33 to NZ$1.53 per share.
- Class 3 shareholders are the key vote. On the assumption of a similar voter turnout to the last scheme, 81.3% of Class 3 shares will vote for the scheme.
- This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 17 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 21.4%, respectively.
Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Production Issues Result in the Board Succumbing to Wyloo’s Offer
- Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)’s Board has unanimously recommended Wyloo’s unconditional off-market takeover bid at A$1.40 per share. The offer price is final.
- The Board has taken the path of least resistance by recommending the offer instead of rejecting the low-balled offer and addressing the production quality issues.
- The offer is attractive in terms of multiples (EV/Resource and EV/Reserve) but at a discount to recent share prices and analyst price targets. Shares are trading in line with terms.
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