In today’s briefing:
- A Plausible Explanation for Korea NPS’s Unusually Large Outflow on Local Stocks in May
- JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Now 29% of Mitsui Matsushima. Activism? Or Effort to Make Murakami Listco
- StubWorld: Bloisi’s Appointment Stalls The Prosus Accretion Trade
- KOSPI Size Indices: Potential Migrations in September Are Moving
- HKTV (1137 HK): $2.15/Share Buy-Back
- Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Jun 24: Hellofresh MDAX Deletion Hinges on Encavis Tender Offer Result
A Plausible Explanation for Korea NPS’s Unusually Large Outflow on Local Stocks in May
- NPS’s May net selling of ₩700B likely stems from retrieving outsourced management funds to allocate to the newly selected three value-up outsider managers.
- These value-up managers will start investing in Q3. NPS’s May net selling matches their allocations. We should design a setup targeting the likely inflow into value-up targets starting early July.
- In particular, we should watch non-financial value-up stocks like Kia Corp and Hyundai Motor, which had more significant May price impacts likely due to NPS outflow.
JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Now 29% of Mitsui Matsushima. Activism? Or Effort to Make Murakami Listco
- Noted Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and his entities and relations went from 4.98% to 19.88% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) at an average ¥3,500/share from 2 May through 10 May.
- Then they bought an additional 5.44% on 13 May, just before earnings, in the midst of a huge run-up, paying 40% more for that 5% than the first 5%.
- I thought that might be the end, but in two days, they have bought an additional 9+%. There is something else going on. It is worthy of your attention.
StubWorld: Bloisi’s Appointment Stalls The Prosus Accretion Trade
- Prosus (PRX NA)‘s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi’s CEO appointment late last week. But the sell-down of Tencent (700 HK) to buy-back Prosus will continue.
- Preceding my comments on Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus/Tencent are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
KOSPI Size Indices: Potential Migrations in September Are Moving
- The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will run from 1 June to 31 August.
- We see 6 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 6 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
- Stocks migrating upward have outperformed stocks migrating lower. But there are still stocks trading at a Price to Book of less than 1.
HKTV (1137 HK): $2.15/Share Buy-Back
- Online shopping platform play Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) (better known as HKTV) has announced a buy-back of 11.25% of shares out, at $2.15/share, a 20.8% premium to undisturbed.
- If successful, the Offer elevates co-founder Ricky Wong’s stake, together with concert parties, to 51.55% (before exercising options), up from 45.75% currently.
- HKTV has been in the news lately for all the wrong reasons: claims of non-payments to suppliers; and delaying its 2026 target after a 79% decline in FY23’s net profit.
Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Jun 24: Hellofresh MDAX Deletion Hinges on Encavis Tender Offer Result
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
- There could be two regular MDAX changes in June including the long-anticipated deletion of M&A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR).
- We do not see any changes for the DAX index based on the current numbers.
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