In today’s briefing:
- 7&I (3382) Ito Family MBO – New Urgency for ACT
- HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Comes Knocking. Again.
- S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions
- Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December
- Integrated Design & Engineering (9161 JP): Tokio Marine (8766 JP) Tender Offer at JPY6,500
- Sayona (SYA AU)/Piedmont (PLL AU)’s Merger Of Equals
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade
- I D & E Holdings (9161 JP) Gets a TOB Offer from Tokio Marine at +63% (¥6,500) – Probably Done
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: Large Flow Expectations Although No Index Changes Expected
- Nagarro SE: Potential Takeover Amidst Financial Growth
7&I (3382) Ito Family MBO – New Urgency for ACT
- Days ago we got a dramatic headline about Ito family scion ITO Junro and his family company Ito Kogyo making a bid for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
- The stock popped, then fell. Details were not clear. Was the ¥9trln an EV number? A market cap? Was he serious? How would he get funding. Skepticism was rife.
- Today we get more headlines from NHK. who says the family wants to raise ¥8trln to take 7&i private by end-Feb 2025.
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Comes Knocking. Again.
- HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), a Hong Kong broadband play, is never short on privatisation rumours. China Mobile (941 HK) is reportedly (again) holding talks with HKBN’s major shareholders.
- China Mobile is a logical suitor. I highly doubt a non-PRC (government-affiliated) corporation would be permitted to take HKBN private.
- Previous takeover rumours over the years came to nought. It may be different this time. HKBN was suspended this morning pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions
- With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change for the S&P/ASX 50 Index and one change for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
- Both deletes are also deletions from a global index next week and there could be short-term buying/covering opportunities on a drop in the stock price.
- There has been a buildup of cumulative excess volume in all stocks over the last few months. There has been no increase in positioning in CAR Group (CAR AU) recently.
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December
- Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.
- With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.
- Short interest is especially large in Sinotruk, Giant Biogene, Kuaishou Technology, ASMPT and JD Logistics and inclusion could set off some short covering.
Integrated Design & Engineering (9161 JP): Tokio Marine (8766 JP) Tender Offer at JPY6,500
- Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings (9161 JP) has recommended Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)’s tender offer at JPY6,500 per share, a 63.3% premium to the last close.
- The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high, above NAV (including latent real estate gains) and above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
- Despite the high required minority acceptance rate, an attractive offer facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 20 November to 15 January 2025 (35 business days).
Sayona (SYA AU)/Piedmont (PLL AU)’s Merger Of Equals
- North American hard-rock lithium plays Piedmont Lithium (PLL AU) and Sayona Mining (SYA AU) are to combine in all-stock merger with a ~50%/50% ownership split on a fully diluted basis.
- Sayona will be the ultimate/surviving parent, via issuing 5.27 Sayona ordinary shares for each Piedmont share. Various equity raisings will also take place, before and after the merger.
- EGMs for both Sayona and Piedmont shareholders are expected to be held in 1H25, with expected completion also in the 1H25.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade
- The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
- The official index changes will be confirmed later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.
- In this insight, we take a look at our final index change expectations and updated flow estimates for the upcoming index rebal event.
I D & E Holdings (9161 JP) Gets a TOB Offer from Tokio Marine at +63% (¥6,500) – Probably Done
- In 2023, Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings (9161 JP) was created as a technical listing, succeeding Nippon Koei (1954 JP). It has been listed for decades.
- On Tuesday 19 November, Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) announced an agreed/supported deal to buy out Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings (9161 JP). The register is open. Should be easy.
- It’s a nice high price for a boring stock, but it is cheap. They are NOT overpaying, but I don’t see who would want to run interference on this.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: Large Flow Expectations Although No Index Changes Expected
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2024 index rebal event will be announced later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.
- In this insight, we take a look at our updated flow expectations.
Nagarro SE: Potential Takeover Amidst Financial Growth
- Nagarro SE (NA9 GR) is in discussions for a potential delisting and takeover, with private equity firm Warburg Pincus reportedly considering a buyout.
- Strong Financial Growth: Q3 2024 revenue rose by 3.7% to €242.9M, with a 5.6% constant currency growth, adjusted EBITDA improving to €34.6M (14.3% of revenue).
- Nagarro trades at a P/E ratio below peers, suggesting undervaluation despite financial resilience, strong liquid assets, and 14% stock price growth over the last eight trading days.
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