In today’s briefing:
- What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS
- DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data
- Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)
- Art of the Deal : Value Destruction for a Listed Company, and a Weak Coming IPO
- Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility
- Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)
- Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth
- Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – April 2025
What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)
- TSMC’s Arizona Yield Success Silences Doubts: Management confirmed first U.S. fab has achieved yields comparable to Taiwan, validating global replication model and reinforcing alignment with U.S. clients like Apple, Nvidia.
- U.S. Buildout Anchoring TSMC’s Long-Term Dominance: With 30% of N2 and beyond capacity to be in USA, TSMC building footprint across fabs, packaging, and R&D competitors will struggle to match.
- Margins Resilient, AI Demand Accelerating: 1Q25 beat on AI strength despite smartphone softness and earthquake disruption. 2Q25E revenue guidance of +13% QoQ reflects continued momentum in advanced nodes and HPC.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS
- TSMC: 16.5% Premium; Short Interest Remains Near Historical Highs for ADR and Local
- ASE: +2.2% Premium; Wait for Closer to Par Before Going Long; Short Interest in Local Shares at Highs
- ChipMOS: +1.1% Premium; Short Interest in Local Shares Hits New Highs
DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive
- DISCO Mar-25 results beat Consensus by ~12%. Jun-25 guidance is very weak but DISCO always under-guides egregiously. But it’s weak.
- Consensus has revised down its Jun-25 revenue forecast from 12% YoY growth to 6% but left Sept-Dec-25 unchanged at ~10% YoY growth. The odds are that Consensus is too high.
- The stock is down -39% since end Dec-24 but still trading at 20x EPS in the face of downside risks to Consensus. Not appealing.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data
- TSMC’s Arizona fab hits Taiwan-level yields, easing replication concerns and reinforcing its global leadership across N2 and advanced packaging.
- AI demand offsets smartphone softness in 1Q25; TSMC guides +13% QoQ revenue for 2Q25 as margins hold firm despite tariff and earthquake headwinds.
- Faraday and UMC results ahead this week — Key readouts on Taiwan’s ASIC, mature node, and design service momentum amid U.S.-China tech decoupling.
Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)
- For the first time since Q322, our price momentum index flipped to negative
- We see few signs of US tariff impacts in the March data — not surprising
- New US levies on China-built ships unhelpful, but most carriers can adjust
Art of the Deal : Value Destruction for a Listed Company, and a Weak Coming IPO
- American Data Centers, after a one-month stint as a joint venture between bush league broker Dominari Holdings (NASDAQ: DOMH) and Eric and Donald Trump Jr., is now becoming a bitcoin miner and hoping for a Nasdaq IPO.
- ADC is doing this in tandem with a public company that already failed at mining. We strongly doubt that either ADC, in its shape shift to miner, or its public sponsor will be a good bet for investors.
- On March 31, 2025, Eric Trump announced plans for a joint venture bitcoin mining company with Hut 8 Corp (NASDAQ: HUT).
Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility
- NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
- FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
- Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.
Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)
- After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant Intel Corp (INTC US), he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.
- Intel Corp (INTC US) to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.
- Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?
Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth
- Aeon will turn Aeon Mall and its facilities management business, Aeon Delight, into subsidiaries.
- The move is part of plans to rationalise and inject new momentum into its shopping building business, including new types of neighbourhood mall.
- It will also use Aeon Mall’s overseas network to scout for promising tenants for its malls and GMS stores.
Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – April 2025
- We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
- We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% year-over-year, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
- We add ICTSI (ICT PM) and Asian Terminals (ATI PM) to our Philippines high-conviction list, which we will be initiating coverage on shortly.
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