In today’s briefing:
- UOB & DBS – Major Divergence In Bad Loans Over Past 2 Crises
- SE/Tiktok:Chinese Practitioners’ Discussions About TikTok’s E-Commerce Business in Southeast Asia
- Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Surges On No News; When Will SET50 Be Fixed?
- Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS): Portfolio Enhancement to Drive Business Growth
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Highlights Intel & Mediatek; AI Server DRAM Demand; Delta Price Surges
- BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) – AbbVie‘s Patent Infringement Allegations Are Not as Simple as Imagined
- Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower (June 2023)
- Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders
- REIT Watch – S-REITs rally on sigh of relief post June FOMC pause
- JEV – The Best of Both Worlds: O&G and Hydrogen
UOB & DBS – Major Divergence In Bad Loans Over Past 2 Crises
- UOB saw bad loans rise 22% during the GFC where DBS saw bad loans rise 146%
- During oil price collapse at FY16, DBS saw NPLs up 83%, UOB saw NPLs up 41%
- In current downturn, a market capitalization decline may be less at UOB vs DBS
SE/Tiktok:Chinese Practitioners’ Discussions About TikTok’s E-Commerce Business in Southeast Asia
- Recently, there has been more discussion about TikTok’s e-commerce business in Southeast Asia on Chinese media and social networks.
- Many service providers and entrepreneurs in China have also been inspired and hope to take the lead in the market with their domestic experience.
- We estimate that TikTok’s 2023 GMV in Southeast Asia will reach 20%~ of Shopee, and this is one of the key reasons why we are bearish to SE.
Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Surges On No News; When Will SET50 Be Fixed?
- Delta Thailand surged 20% since our last trade monitor piece. This was without any significant news and the company received another query from the stock exchange as a result.
- Delta Taiwan increased by a higher 22%, thus the extreme valuation mismatch between the two has corrected slightly. Delta Taiwan is still only 0.78x the market cap of Delta Thailand.
- Delta Taiwan last week announced the acquisition of a German company that makes components for vehicles. This will strengthen Delta’s battery management product portfolio and add client relationships.
Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS): Portfolio Enhancement to Drive Business Growth
- Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) is expected to launch Humira biosimilar, Yuflyma, in the U.S. market in July 2023. Despite heavy competition, as high-concentration citrate-free formulation, Yuflyma has competitive edge.
- In April 2023, Celltrion has launched bevacizumab biosimilar, Vegzelma in the U.S. Vegzelma will be the first product that the company will be directly selling in the U.S.
- Through portfolio expansion, Celltrion increased target market size to $53.7B in 2023 from $20.6B in 2020, representing 161% growth. For 2024, the target market is expected to increase to $91.3B.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Highlights Intel & Mediatek; AI Server DRAM Demand; Delta Price Surges
- More Nvidia Takeaways from two conferences the company spoke at — The company highlighted support for Intel’s new Foundry business, Mediatek, and why automakers will absolutely need AI to compete.
- Memory Chip Stocks — Nanya jumps 10% on hopes that AI servers will need 7x the value of DRAM. Micron warns that half of China revenue could be at risk.
- Delta Taiwan and Thailand Surge 20%+, Taiwan outperforms. Delta Taiwan has acquired a German automotive components company to boost its EV powertrain products lead.
BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) – AbbVie‘s Patent Infringement Allegations Are Not as Simple as Imagined
- AbbVie’s patent infringement allegations against BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) is an attempt to obstruct BeiGene through legal means and save Imbruvica’s sales decline in the market. AbbVie came prepared this time.
- BeiGene has a chance to win the lawsuit if without any political factors.But if BeiGene fails to walk away unscathed, any damages/patent royalty would be detrimental to its financial performance/forecast.
- The real key point in determining BeiGene’s future turnaround is not this lawsuit, but the clinical results of TIGIT project. Even with the correction since May, BeiGene is still expensive.
Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower (June 2023)
- Our index suggests long-haul rates remained stable in May as carriers approach peak season
- Cleanup of West Coast slowdown, lower fuel prices should both serve as Summer tailwinds
- We believe conditions could improve in H2 2023, and shares remain cheap on Price / Assets
Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders
- Q1-4 FY4/2023 results were ahead of revised company guidance and our earnings estimates, highlighting the company’s success in 1) driving demand at both existing and newly acquired customers, and 2) implementing Marketing Technology services that are improving the overall sales mix and driving margin growth.
- On this fundamentally robust basis, the company acquired Net Marketing in April 2023, an advertising agency that will allow access to new customers in which to sell-in profitable Marketing Technology services and replicate its effective model, as well as gain exposure to a more diversified range of market sectors.
- Strong outlook for FY4/2024 – we revise our earnings estimates for FY4/2024 and beyond, reflecting the following: 1) stronger topline growth in Analytics Consulting, 2) a more enhanced trajectory of profitability improvement in the medium term, given the success of Marketing Technology services to date.
REIT Watch – S-REITs rally on sigh of relief post June FOMC pause
- Top 10 S-Reits & property trusts that gained during the week of FOMC June 2023 meeting Key news last week was the US Federal Reserve’s decision to put a pause on interest rates, keeping them unchanged as announced during this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
- The top 5 gainers among S-REITs & Property Trusts during the week until Thursday’s close were: Keppel REIT (5.9 per cent), Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (5.6 per cent), Mapletree Logistics Trust (5.5 per cent), CapitaLand India Trust (4.7 per cent), and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (3.8 per cent).
JEV – The Best of Both Worlds: O&G and Hydrogen
- Jericho’s O&G JV assets are harvesting record cash flow and growing production steadily.
- JEV’s wholly owned Hydrogen Technologies has an innovative solution for clean hydrogen boilers.
- This business allows JEV to generate non-dilutive cash flow which can be re-invested in the high multiple hydrogen industry.
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