Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview and more

• December 2024 revenues of NT$278.16 billion, up 0.8% MoM and up a remarkable 57.8% YoY. It was the second highest monthly revenue in the company’s history.
• Q424 revenue amounted to NT$868,460. At the company’s forecasted exchange rate for Q4,  NT$32 to the US$, this amounts to $27.14 billion, the company’s highest quarterly revenue ever
• We expect 2025 to be another growth year for TSMC, likely in the mid to high teens range. Expect Q125 to be down ~5% QoQ based on normal seasonality.

• Fosun hopes to privatize Henlius at a low price. As usual, it does not consider the interests of long-term investors, who may express their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization.
• Lin Lijun clearly has bargaining chips. He may ask Fosun to provide a clear plan for future relisting/asset restructuring, and how the Share Alternative will be linked to this plan.
• There is a possibility this privatization may fail. Such possibility is not low, because investors will only support the privatization if they can be sure that their interests are protected.

• Tesla is once again reshaping the automotive and energy landscape with its latest wave of innovations that span from groundbreaking vehicle updates to advances in artificial intelligence and energy solutions.
• The company’s updated Model Y in China, a redesign aimed at maximizing efficiency, represents just one facet of its dynamic transformation.
• Recent Q3 2024 earnings discussions revealed record deliveries, improved vehicle safety metrics, and ambitious plans for scaling autonomous driving technologies and energy storage capabilities.

• ASML’s total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMC
• The company’s share price recently experienced a significant two-day drop
• Despite past reservations, the author sees potential for a good risk/reward opportunity in buying ASML stock due to better pricing and negative investor sentiment on lithography

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Shift Inc (3697 JP) ’s share price went up by about 13% today following the release of its 1QFY08/2025 results yesterday. Share price is up 19% YTD.
• • Shift’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement had resulted in a decline in the company’s margins since 1QFY08/2024, this drove share prices down.
• Shift has once again proved that its business model is resilient and we expect the company’s earnings to continue to see strong growth going forward.

• Lock up expiry today of 21.2 million shares held by Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN)‘s anchor investors. This could improve free float to 17.5% with rest held by the parent.
• Hyundai India Management is positive about its CY2025 outlook and expects to grow by similar numbers or more in 2025 as it did in 2024. 
• Creta Electric’s launch is scheduled on Jan 17th; Hyundai hopes to replicate the growth and excitement seen with its original Creta model.

• TSMC Results Today; Arizona Production of 4nm Started, Yield on Par with Taiwan
• TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 Outlook & Q125 Look Ahead 
• Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co 

• Santarli and Apex make joint bid worth $368M for a site in Western Singapore, expanding their real estate portfolio.
• CVC-backed chain competes for First REIT’s Indonesian assets valued at $599M, increasing their presence in the market.
• EdgeConneX ventures into Japan with a 140MW data center project in Greater Osaka, showcasing their global growth strategy.

• Lower average freight rate momentum and deceleration in 4Q24 load factor expansions for Orient Overseas International (316 HK) have raised alarm for a weaker industry outlook.
• Spot freight rate has come down by 6.8% in the last two weeks. The potential ease of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East may induce a capacity return.
• The consensus forecasts for FY25-26 have been downgraded by 5-9%, suggesting caution in the market. Its dividend yield will lower from 14.0% in FY24 to just 4.3% in FY26.

• Delta Thailand Weakness Amid Block Trade and Convertible Bond News
• Delta Taiwan Offering Convertible Bonds, Convertible into Delta Thailand Shares
• Delta Thailand Still Overvalued Relative to Delta Taiwan — Short Delta Thailand vs. Long Delta Taiwan