In today’s briefing:
- TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Firms to Surge U.S. Investment Due to Trump?; AI PCs & Memory Expansion
- Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC
- Appointment of RFK Jr as the US Health Secretary and a Book Review Of “The Real Anthony Fauci”
- PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process
- Oriental Watch (398 HK) H1 FY25 and Mgmt Meeting: Resilient 14% Yield Despite Tough Environment
TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.
- TSMC cash dividend has increased by 65% in 2 years or NT$2.75 in 4Q22 to NT$4.50 in 3Q24. It will keep increasing.
- TSMC is spinning cash. 2nm-16A could increase Capex intensity but still we estimate that quarterly dividend can increase to NT$5.50 in 2025 and NT$6.00 in 2026.
- Consensus forecasts similar EPS growth for TSMC and ASML: 30% in 2025, 20% in 2026. TSMC is 50% cheaper than ASML. 2025 PEx: TSMC 18x and ASML 28x.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging
- TSMC: +16.7% Premium; Further Market Weakness Could Soon Open Up Good Long Level
- UMC: -2.1% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
- ASE: -0.1% Discount; Premium Completely Broken Down & Local Short Interest Continues to Surge
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Firms to Surge U.S. Investment Due to Trump?; AI PCs & Memory Expansion
- Hon Hai, Pegatron, and Quanta Gear Up for Potential U.S. Investment Surge Amid Trump Policy Speculation
- PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process
- Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies
Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC
- TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.
- Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.
- Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214.
Appointment of RFK Jr as the US Health Secretary and a Book Review Of “The Real Anthony Fauci”
- In this insight, we provide some of the main highlights of the book “The Real Anthony Fauci”, which was written by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr) in 2021.
- We discuss how the appointment of RFK Jr could impact some of the major health care stocks in Korea, especially those that are involved in developing and producing vaccines.
- Although the share prices of many Korean vaccines related stocks have declined materially in the past 2-3 years, RFK Jr becoming the next US Health Secretary could pose further headwinds.
PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process
- Asustek Guides for 20%+ YoY PC Revenue Growth in 4Q24E; Lenovo Delivers 17% YoY PC Revenue Growth in CY3Q24
- AI PCs: A Multi-Year Upgrade Cycle with Rising Average Selling Prices; AI PCs 80% of the PC Market by 2027E
- Maintain Structural Long View for AI PC Up-Cycle; Asustek, Acer, & Lenovo Well-Positioned Through 2025E
Oriental Watch (398 HK) H1 FY25 and Mgmt Meeting: Resilient 14% Yield Despite Tough Environment
- Oriental Watch reported H1 FY25 revenues/profits down 2.6%/-13.7 % YoY despite the tough retail sales environment, especially in HK (25% of revenues).
- The company declared a 24.6 HKD cents dividend, equivalent to a 14% dividend yield annualized on the current price.
- With 62% of the market capitalization in cash, a 7x PE, and a 14% dividend yield (assuming a consistent 100% payout), this is a name to look at.
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