In today’s briefing:
- Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): H1 FY25 Earnings Preview, 4.5x PE with 12% Yield
- NPS Sues Samsung’s Lee Jae-Yong
- Asics (7936) | Q3 Preview; Revision of MTP
- Memory Monitor: Upcoming Micron Results & Outlook Key Amid Reports of Inventory Liquidation
- Memory Monitor: Micron Results Show Clear Signs of Memory Market Upswing; DRAM Growth Upgraded
- United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely
- Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Sep-2024): Aug 2024 notebook shipment update
- Clinuvel: A Big Future in Skin Disease Treatment
- Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) | Inventory, Demand Environment & Competition
- TOC: Strong Assets with a Near Term Path to Production
Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): H1 FY25 Earnings Preview, 4.5x PE with 12% Yield
- Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) will report its H1 FY25 earnings in early November. The company isn’t reporting quarterly earnings because GEM board stocks are no longer required to do so.
- We expect revenue and profit growth of 22% %/20% YoY, as the average number of HK restaurants has increased from 45 to 54, and most have ramped up.
- Trading at 4.5x PE with a 12% dividend yield, 27% of the market cap in cash and a mainboard listing on the horizon there abundant catalysts for the future.
NPS Sues Samsung’s Lee Jae-Yong
- NPS has filed a lawsuit against Samsung Group Chairman Lee Jae-Yong and others involved in the merger of Samsung C&T (028260 KS) and Cheil Industries nearly nine years ago.
- NPS is trying to recover damages estimated at up to 675 billion won.
- If NPS is able to win in this lawsuit, it could result in other minority shareholders launching their own lawsuits which could further raise concerns on Samsung C&T.
Asics (7936) | Q3 Preview; Revision of MTP
- Asics is seeing robust D2C sales growth, now 40% of total sales, driving gross margins to 55.5% (+4.5 pp YoY) in 1H24.
- High-Margin models and strong sales in Onitsuka Tiger and Sportsstyle categories support a forecasted 13% YoY sales increase in 2H24.
- Asics’ strategic transformation, focusing on structural reforms and emerging markets, to drive upgraded MTP though FY26.
Memory Monitor: Upcoming Micron Results & Outlook Key Amid Reports of Inventory Liquidation
- Memory stocks underperformed the market, falling sharply with the recent overall market rout and failing to rebound sufficiently with the latest market rally.
- Leading Memory names Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung are all substantially below their 52-week highs after market reports of slowing memory demand from PC and mobile industries and inventory liquidation.
- Taiwan names Nanya Tech, Silicon Motion, Phison are all we below their highs. Micron results on September 25th MT will provide a major outlook update for the market.
Memory Monitor: Micron Results Show Clear Signs of Memory Market Upswing; DRAM Growth Upgraded
- Micron’s latest results show a clear improvement in the Memory cycle. The company’s gross margin increased and guided for a further strong margin increase next quarter.
- Micron increased its overall DRAM industry growth forecast while maintaining its NAND flash forecast. Micron reiterated expectations for FY2025E to deliver record revenue for the company, with improving profitability.
- Positive news for fallen Memory industry shares — Within our Memory universe we have Structural Long ratings for Micron Technology (MU US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), and Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO US).
United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely
- Given UMC’s partnership with Intel to produce chips using Intel’s 12nm fab capacity, we believe latest Intel developments increase the opportunity for Intel Foundry to take a stake in UMC.
- Intel’s Foundry business makes a strong partner for UMC who has deep foundry experience and talent, but doesn’t have leading edge fabs nor the balance sheet to build them.
- If Intel Foundry Services spins out or Intel strengthens its balance sheet through a deal with Qualcomm/Apollo, the potential for a deeper UMC-Intel Foundry partnership becomes even more compelling.
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Sep-2024): Aug 2024 notebook shipment update
- Aug 2024 Notebook shipments on track for delivery with tracking information soon. Apple MR device facing possible upgrade to 1,500 PPI OLED display.
- Automotive CIS tech set to advance by 2024. Taiwan offers permanent residence to address talent shortage in AI industry.
- UK showcases compound semiconductor strength and collaboration with Taiwan. Henkel expands semiconductor focus in India for market growth.
Clinuvel: A Big Future in Skin Disease Treatment
- Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU)’s Scenesse is the only approved erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) treatment. Patent protection and orphan drug status solidifies Clinuvel’s market position.
- Clinuvel is expanding Scenesse’s (afamelanotide) use and developing and testing additional products for clinical and photo-cosmetic use.
- Profitability metrics and growth are solid and cash position strong to support R&D for trials and new product development.
Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) | Inventory, Demand Environment & Competition
- We spoke to cable distributors and industry experts to understand any concerns regarding industry-wide inventory levels and to gauge the current demand environment.
- Stocks in focus include Polycab India (POLYCAB IN); KEI Industries (KEII IN) & R R Kabel (2333180Z IN).
- Overall industry business momentum remains strong, project delays and competition warrant attention.
TOC: Strong Assets with a Near Term Path to Production
- Tocvan is centred around its clear and achievable objectives, looking to develop its flagship Gran Pilar Gold Project to near-term production.
- Following a maiden resource this fall, a pilot plant is expected to be permitted, constructed, and producing gold as early as H1/25.
- Beyond the pending resource estimate, the Gran Pilar Project shows significant growth potential across its 2,200ha+ land package.
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