Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Sea Ltd: TikTok’s Tokopedia Deal and Lazada’s Financial Boost Raise Concerns and more

• There have been several developments in the Southeast Asian e-commerce space over the past few days that we believe will have a negative impact on Sea (SE US)’s financial performance.
• A few days ago, TikTok, owned by ByteDance (1439927D CH), announced a $1.5bn investment in Tokopedia.
• Today, Nikkei reported that Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has infused an additional $634m into Lazada, its Southeast Asia e-commerce unit, to enhance its competitive position in the face of escalating competition.

• TSMC: 10.4% Premium — Decent Level to Short the Spread At
• ASE: 6.2% Premium — Wait for 5% as the Level to Go Long the Spread
• UMC: Trading at 0.8% — Wait for 1.5% or Higher

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Lendlease Global Commercial REIT’s CEO, Mr Kelvin Chow.

In the upcoming webinar, Kelvin will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Angus Mackintosh. Angus will also be providing an industry overview, featuring landscape commentary and returns analysis. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

In the spirit of the festive season, one of the attendees will also be awarded an Amazon Kindle as part of our lucky draw.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 9 January 2024, 19:00 SGT.

About Lendlease Global Commercial REIT

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT’s portfolio comprises two leasehold properties in Singapore, Jem (office and retail property) and 313@somerset (retail property), and three freehold Grade A office buildings, Sky Complex, in Milan. It has a total net lettable area of approximately 2.1 million square feet, with an appraised value of S$3.65 billion. Other investments include a stake in Parkway Parade and the development of a multifunctional event space on a site adjacent to 313@somerset.

• Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF) reported a decent Q2FY24. AUM growth came in at 33% YoY. Profitability was also strong with ROA and ROE at 5%+ and 24%+, respectively.
• While, the overall outlook remains robust, BAF may see some NIM pressure due to rising cost of funds. However, majority of this is likely to be offset by operating leverage.
• BAF’s initiative to enter into new segments like microfinance and new car financing is progressing well. New car financing expansion is already ahead of plan with presence in 85 locations.

• AMD’s resurgence against a dominant Intel saw the company grow annual revenues >4x between 2017 and 2022
• FY 2023 revenue is likely to be down roughly $1 billion or ~4% YoY.
• We expect a combination of renewed Data Center market share growth plus a grand entrance into the AI acceleration segment will restart the party all over again in 2024. 

• Local news reported two positive developments for Zai Lab’s FcRn inhibitor Efgartigimod: (1) Rival CSPC/HarbourBio withdrew BLA for competing drug Batoclimab (HBM9161), (2) Efgartigimod was included in 2024 NDRL;
• We raise Zai Lab’s 2024 top line by 8.8% but keep non-GAAP operating loss largely unchanged；
• We raise TP by US$2 to US$20 and maintain SELL.

• The stock of Poly Development and Holdings Group Co. Ltd. jumped 7.6% Tuesday after the leading developer unveiled an up to 2-billion-yuan ($279 million) share buyback aimed at arresting its sliding equity price.
• Shares of Poly Development closed at 10.34 yuan in Shanghai Tuesday, compared with 9.61 yuan at Monday’s closing. The stock has nearly halved from the 18.59-yuan peak in April 2022 after the persistent downturn in the property market.
• Poly Development, China’s largest developer by sales this year, said late Monday that it plans to buy back 1 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan of its own shares in the next three months.

• A meeting with Ace Hardware Indonesia revealed a newfound enthusiasm and confidence in the outlook for growth with new store formats and an omnichannel approach as key future drivers. 
• The company will accelerate its store buildout in 2024 with plans for 20 new stores versus 13 in 2023 with new format stores taking the lead, with an emphasis ex-Java.
• Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) will also accelerate the buildout of smaller-sized Ace Express stores with a pilot started this year.  Recent share price weakness looks unjustified.

• Strong execution on multiple fronts – Q1-2 FY4/2024 results were ahead of expectations, with sales growth of 205.2% YoY and operating profit growth of 572.1% YoY.
• Whilst acquisitive growth was to be expected, HEROZ has also demonstrated 1) organic growth in its AI/DX Service with underlying sales growth of 14.6% YoY,
• 2) increased the proportion of recurring revenue to 62.4% of total sales and thereby continuing to improve earnings visibility

• Cash-strapped developer Dalian Wanda Group Co. Ltd. can breathe a temporary sigh of relief having reached an agreement with investors to avoid an immediate repayment of more than 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) for an unfulfilled flotation of its property management unit.
• Wanda faced having to repay a group of investors their 38-billion-yuan investments plus interest under a 2021 agreement if the developer failed to list its light-asset unit, Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management Group Co. Ltd., by the end of this year.
• As Zhuhai Wanda’s listing plan failed despite four attempts, the repayment obligation became a ticking time bomb hanging over the company, which is struggling with capital drains amid plunging sales.