Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Rebound in Int’l Demand & Benign Fuel Prices Could Support Recovery in Chinese Airlines’ Share Perf and more

• By many metrics, Chinese airlines’ recent performance exceeds pre-Covid levels
• Medium-Term, ongoing int’l recovery and benign fuel prices can boost margins
• We believe the airlines could recoup weak relative performance vs Trip.com

IP Group’s realisation activity has picked up notably in the months leading up to the company’s interim results publication in September, encouraging the company to increase the current buyback programme by £10m to £30m. Subsequently, IP Group agreed to sell the AI-powered financial crime detection business Featurespace to Visa. The exit will result in £134m in realisation proceeds at a 70% uplift to end-2023 carrying value, part of which was recognised in the H124 results, translating in a broadly stable value of IP Group’s private holdings. The de-rating of listed Oxford Nanopore (ONT) was therefore the major driver behind IP Group’s 9% NAV fall in total return (TR) terms in H124 to 104.7p, though nearly half of the ONT share price fall was reversed post end-June 2024, assisted by its half-year trading update and the Novo Holdings investment.

• HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Right Stocks Listed in the Wrong Market—Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China—Sep 2024 helped us screen out great names.
• Nameson Holdings (1982 HK), a knitwear supplier that trades at 4.5x PE, is net cash (considering investments) and has a 17% dividend yield, is one of them. 
• We find this name attractive, and the yield can be sustainable as it shifts its supply base from China to Vietnam. Hence, we initiate with a detailed write-up. 

• Microsoft is projected to report an EPS of $3.10 for Q1 FY2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase, highlighting consistent growth amid evolving market dynamics.
• With a quarterly dividend increase of 10% and a $60 billion share repurchase program approved, Microsoft aims to enhance shareholder value while navigating competitive pressures.
• Amid concerns of slowing AI adoption, analysts are divided on Microsoft’s outlook, balancing high expectations against rising expenses, especially with its significant investments in AI and cloud infrastructure.

Ocean Wilsons Holdings’ (OCN’s) H124 results showed good growth, reflecting a strong performance from Wilson Sons and a positive performance from the investment portfolio (OWIL). While the strategic review remains ongoing, in August the company announced that it is in discussions with I Squared that may or may not lead to an offer for its holding in Wilson Sons (BOVESPA: PORT3). Despite the review and the potential for value realisation, OCN still trades at a c 40% discount to our valuation of 2,275p/share.

Basilea Pharmaceutica has reported another US$1.25m milestone payment from its partner Pfizer in Asia-Pacific and China, triggered by Cresemba sales in this region crossing a pre-defined threshold. This is the fourth milestone payment for Cresemba from the region this year, adding to the already strong H2 results (c CHF33m/US$38.5m milestone payments recorded in H224 so far; CHF35m in 2024 to date). The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China (which accounts for c 20% of the market potential for Cresemba), is of key importance to Basilea, as its lead product approaches maturity in the US and European markets (exclusivity until late 2027). Note that Cresemba has recorded in-market sales of US$505m for the 12 months ending 30 June 2024, robust 20% y-o-y growth.

• Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) has reiterated FY25 guidance, indicating sequentially better financial performance in Q2FY25 as well as H2FY25. Overseas business and royalty income are on strong footing.
• Shionogi has acquired the exclusive distribution rights for Quviviq in Japan. With better efficacy and safety profile, and sizable patient population, Quviviq should be a significant revenue contributor.
• Shionogi submitted NDA in Japan for zuranolone, a treatment in development for major depressive disorder (MDD). Approval is expected in H1FY26.

• RaaS has published an update report on diversified financials company Bell Financial Group (ASX:BFG) on the back of supportive September 2024 metrics including ECM league tables, ASX volumes and equity markets performance.
• BFG is sitting fourth on the LSEG ECM league tables for the nine months to September 2024, raising $1.2b and on-track with RaaS forecasts (positive for Retail and Institutional).
• The ASX200 closed 6.3% higher at the end of September 2024 relative to June 2024, above implied RaaS assumptions for the full-year and positive for the Portfolio Administration Services (PAS) business and overall investor confidence.ASX transaction volumes continue to recover from a weak CY23, up 32% for the September quarter and positive for the Retail and Technology & Platforms divisions.

• Azul and GOL running with liability positions over double LATAM – convergence required to ensure financial sustainability.
• Azul’s USD-denominated liabilities continue to weigh heavily, suggesting profitability and full balance sheet clean up distant prospects despite lessor re-negotiations.
• GOL’s Chapter 11 process needs to focus on balance sheet recalibration – BRL weakness may require recalibration.