In today’s briefing:
- Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward
- Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes
- Banking on Success: A Long-Short Strategy for Nifty Banks
- Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s TSMC 2nm Power Move Beats Samsung; Himax Ascends with TSMC/Nvidia Halos
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2025 Could Achieve 25% Yearly Growth.
- China Tobacco Intl (6055 HK): A Bullish Expectation
- KE (BEKE): New Home Decline Narrowed, The Top Agent Needed by Landlords and Developers
- China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,
Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward
- Shipping the first water-based cooling systems for servers equipped with Nvidia’s new Blackwell GPUs and building two new motor factories in India.
- Moving beyond excessive dependence on China while restructuring operations to reduce costs. Sales short of 1H guidnce, but operating profit up.
- Share price down 30% since May and close to its 52-week low. Selling at 17.5x this fiscal year’s EPS guidance, the lowest P/E multiple in a decade.
Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates
- Laser focus, transparency and adoption of a “say do” approach to measuring success are now the order of the day at Intel
- Data Center roadmap not in good shape and if IFS can’t deliver, MJ won’t hesitate to outsource DC products to TSMC alongside existing Client products.
- Gaudi is not a mass market product, Falcon Shores won’t be great either but we will listen, learn, iterate and fail quickly. Watch out NVIDIA !
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes
- TSMC: 22.7% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Historical Trading Range
- UMC: +0.2% Premium; Middle of Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises to New High
- CHT: +0.5% Premium; Major Spike in Short Interest for the Local Taiwan Shares
Banking on Success: A Long-Short Strategy for Nifty Banks
- A long-short strategy with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and State Bank Of India outperformed the NSE Nifty Bank Index by 2.1% from 21 November to present.
- The trade is supported by strong fundamentals, institutional and systemic aspects, and favorable technical factors.
- The strategy is market-neutral with zero correlation to the Nifty Bank Index, enhanced by the yield pick-up from shorting the futures in a contango market.
Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.
- Lots of Jobs eliminated by Large Tech firms. Stable Mediatek-Qualcomm market share in Mobile. Foundry Top-10: 5-4-3nm still booming, Mature nodes still lagging.
- Samsung multiple troubles. HBM3e still not qualified, losing iPhone OLED share, US CHIPS Act subsidies gone, Exynos 2500 delayed, Smartphone forecasts lower
- Intel new CEOs admit they don’t have an AI roadmap – Gaudi 3 failed, next-gen Falcon Shores is a learning opportunity… but 18A process on track (for 2027?).
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s TSMC 2nm Power Move Beats Samsung; Himax Ascends with TSMC/Nvidia Halos
- Apple’s 2nm Power Move with TSMC — Beating Samsung Yet Again
- Why TSMC’s 2nm Will be Huge — Extending Tech Lead vs. Samsung & Major AI/Power Consumption Benefits for Customers
- The Memory Decoupling Trade is Working — Nanya Tech Underperforms SK Hynix
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2025 Could Achieve 25% Yearly Growth.
- We anticipate Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) can achieve a 25% growth in 2025.
- It is unsurprising for TSMC to dominate in AI, including the assembly and testing segments.
- Chinese companies are also involved in AI, but there hasn’t been a recent spread as a result of U.S. sanctions.
China Tobacco Intl (6055 HK): A Bullish Expectation
- Management of China Tobacco International (HK) (6055 HK) is bullish on earnings in the next two years, with tobacco leaf import and cigarette export being the key drivers.
- Elevated tobacco leaf price is positive to CTI while more re-opening of duty-free shops (currently only 50% of pre-COVID level) will add to revenue momentum.
- A light gearing of just 2% and potentially more parent asset injection are CTI’s strengths. The company plans to maintain a steady uptrend on absolute DPS annually.
KE (BEKE): New Home Decline Narrowed, The Top Agent Needed by Landlords and Developers
- The decline of new home sales was narrowed in the past ten months.
- New home, rental, and furnishing businesses grew strongly in 3Q24.
- We believe the operating margin will improve in 2025 and 2026.
China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,
- NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November and 41% YoY for first eleven months.
- Jiyue Auto, as a car maker subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees.
- Hisense, a home appliance producer, lays off 30,000 employees of its total 110,000.
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