Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Netflix: My Updated Outlook After 68% Gains and more

• Bill Ackman’s analysis was good, but his timing was poor. Netflix subscriptions recover, but margins fall.
• The outlook for Netflix under a new leadership model is good, according to Ackman.
• Netflix stock bottomed as expected, but it was down for the first time since Ackman took over.

• The long, twisted trail of Universal Entertainment’s Okada Manila casino spinoff faces yet another legal obstacle announced last week.
• The extension of Universal’s/ 26 Capital Spac deal for one year could see the debut of the IPO during an increasingly higher growth industry revenue recovery arc.
• 26 Capital valuation of Okada at US$2.5 bill with a $10 per share offer price could run up quickly as market momentum turns positive sentiment higher.

• Barrick Gold Corporation’s stock is bearish on the premise of underwhelming operational performance and an overblown gold price outlook.
• However, ramp-ups of critical assets are yet to be realized, according to the company.
• Barrick is committed to a substantial share buyback program and promises solid dividends.

• Record high quarterly margins at Disney’s parks and experiences would not be the silver bullet to high shareholder returns.
• Higher future margins are already priced in and with that upside appears limited, even if management executes on its current strategy.
• Disney’s business model is shaken by yet another restructuring, according to the company.

• Abbvie Inc (ABBV US) reported 4Q22 results, with revenue increasing 2% to $15B, mainly driven by Skyrizi and Rinvoq. EPS grew 17% to $3.60, better than consensus and company guidance.
• The company has initiated 2023 EPS guidance at $10.70–11.10, representing a decline of 19–22% YoY, as Humira has started facing competition in the U.S.
• 2023 guidance contemplates the expected headwind from direct biosimilar competition, with the U.S. Humira sales declining ~37%, which is at the lower end of previous erosion projection of 35–55%.

• LiDAR works by emitting laser beams and measuring the time it takes for the beams to bounce back to the sensor.
• By using this information, LiDAR can create a 3D map of the surrounding environment, including the location and shape of objects, such as buildings, trees, pedestrians, and vehicles.
• One of the main advantages of LiDAR is its accuracy and range.

• Alteogen Inc (196170 KS) signed its fourth licensing deal for ALT-B4, a proprietary human recombinant hyaluronidase enzyme, with Sandoz. Given the strong demand more such deals are expected to follow.
• Alteogen is reportedly in talks with global pharmaceutical companies for a technology transfer deal for Herceptin SC biosimilar. If successful, Alteogen will be a re-rating candidate.
• Alteogen has established Altos Biologics to facilitate global phase 3 clinical trials and commercial development of Eylea biosimilar. Altos Biologics aims to be listed on the KOSDAQ in 2024.

• A flight to safety from the bank’s depositors and asset management clients has caused a maturity mismatch, which could affect the firm’s net interest income.
• The outcome of Credit Suisse’s investment banking unit pivot is near impossible to call, but a few key indicators provide an interesting juxtaposition.
• And there we have it, folks; Credit Suisse Group AG’s (NYSE:CS) stock is essentially a distressed asset.

Immix Biopharma has announced interim response rate data from its newly formed subsidiary, Nexcella, concerning the BCMA-targeting cell therapy NXC-201 in multiple myeloma and AL amyloidosis. The data, presented at the 5th European CAR T-cell Meeting, shows a 90% overall response rate (ORR) in 29 patients (of 42 total enrolled) treated with NXC-201 at the recommended Phase II dose (RP2D). This result is comparable to approved BCMA-targeting cell therapies. Importantly, cytokine release syndrome was manageable, and no neurotoxicity was observed at the RP2D (800m cells). In our view, NXC-201’s potential main point of differentiation is its favorable safety profile, which we believe the latest data supports. Immix will continue to investigate NXC-201 as the first potential outpatient CAR T-cell therapy. This announcement follows the recent initiation of patient enrolment in a new Phase Ib/IIa clinical trial, investigating the use of Immix’s lead asset, IMX-110, in combination with tislelizumab (BeiGene/Novartis’s anti-PD-1 antibody) for the treatment of advanced solid tumors.

paragon appears to be progressively de-risking its investment proposition. The agreed sale of Semvox crystallises an enterprise value (EV) that highlights the depressed market cap due to the debt burden. The accelerated redemption of the entire Swiss franc (CHF) bond issue and half the Eurobond reduces debt metrics to typical industrial levels, and we expect improving cash flows to facilitate final redemption in 2027. The result is an apparently anomalous rating for paragon compared to its estimated cash valuations and peers. Assuming the disposal completes and the bonds are redeemed as anticipated, the crushed equity value of recent years should finally be relieved.