Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Showcasing Growth Through Competitive Advantage and more

• Capitalizing on growth opportunities – Q1-2 FY3/2024 results were ahead of company guidance, driven by the Funeral Services segment, as attendee numbers and refreshment sales grew, and new funeral hall openings saw higher than expected utilization rates.
• We believe this indicates the strong competitive positioning the company has as the market-leading funeral services operator in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
• With effective cost control in the Information and HR segments, the company has high earnings visibility and raised FY3/2024 company guidance, as well as increasing the planned dividend payout ratio to 32.5% from 30%.

• ~$900 million supercomputer deal is off the charts compared to all previous deals
• Without the deal, Cerebras would likely soon have run out of cash. With the deal, Cerebras is effectively working as a supercomputer contractor for G42 for the next several years
• Three supercomputers to be built in the US, we suspect the remaining six to be built in the UAE. That’s likely to raise some eyebrows. 

• The shares are down 27% from their May high, largely discounting excessive inventory and a decline in profits that is likely to continue through next March or June.
• Inventory adjustment, the revival of semiconductor, factory automation and medical related demand, plus the leveling off of depreciation, should enable a return to growth after that. 
• Projected valuations are at the low end of their 10-year ranges. Buy into the current weakness, keeping in mind that 1Q results are likely to be weak.

• In Q2FY24, Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN) reported 10% growth in domestic formulation business, driven by 12% growth in pain management. In FY24, domestic formulation is expected to growth 12–14%.  
• Ipca now holds 52.67% stake in Unichem Laboratories (UL IN). Ipca is confident to clock revenue of INR1.7–1.8B and EBITDA of INR300M from Unichem within two years of acquisition.
• As facilities are back onstream, Ipca is augmenting the supply chain and revalidating of all the formulations and updating them. Shipment to the U.S. may begin in Q1FY25.

• In Q2FY24, Avid Bioservices (CDMO US) reported 27% YoY and 33% QoQ revenue decline to $25.4M, due to annual maintenance shutdown and reduction in process development services from early-stage customers.
• During Q2FY24, Avid Bioservices signed $35M in net new business orders from both new and existing customers, resulting in a record high backlog of $199M, up 35% YoY.
• Avid Bioservices has lowered FY24 revenue guidance to $137–147 million from $145–165 million. For reference, the company reported revenue of $149 million in FY23.

• IBA (leading airline intelligence and appraisers) analysis suggests aircraft shortage will persist over the mid-term, pushing rates for newbuilds and especially mid-life assets much higher
• Our TP of US$81.45 is premised on 0.94x 2024 P/BV, but it is evident that accounting book value is significantly below current market values, implying a higher fair value 
• Stay invested, the upcoming 4Q23 results will uncover earnings boost from off-hire aircraft extension at premium rates, elevating Aercap’s attractiveness 

Shield Therapeutics’ US commercialisation efforts continue to gather steam, with prescription volumes gearing up in Q323 (27,750 prescriptions, a 76% sequential growth over Q2 and higher than the combined H123 figure of 26,284) and net selling price making a strong recovery after dipping in H123 (+24% to $148/prescription). US revenues grew to $4.1m, higher than the combined H1 figure of $3.7m. First-time prescribers grew 27% q-o-q and new prescriptions were up by 87%. More encouragingly, the clinical utility of Accrufer continues to be considered favourably by prescribers, reflected in the 77% repeat writers from Q223. Management has guided for FY23 total prescriptions to be between 100k and 130k, requiring a sequential growth of 65.6% at the lower end, which we see as undemanding given the Q3 run rate and growing momentum (as the expanded salesforce gets more entrenched). We maintain our full-year estimates and continue to value the company at £390.4m.

• Strong Insurance Revenue growth by 11.71% for 2023 (FH 2023: EUR 42,305,397 vs FH 2022: EUR 37,869,728) and robust Investments and Miscellaneous Income growth by 176.62% for 2023 (FH 2023: EUR 12,189,980 vs FH 2022: EUR (15,910,269)) were the key factors for INTERLIFE to return to profitability, posting an EBIT of 13,535,165 EUR, 223.83% increase compared to FY 2022 and an EPS at 0.591 EUR, +221.38% from the FH 2022.
• INTERLIFE holds twice the capital needed for severe disasters, with a Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR=Total eligible own funds / Solvency Capital Requirement) Ratio adequacy of 201.44%, surpassing the 180% Greek benchmark of 2022 and with a Minimum Capital Requirement (MCR= Total eligible own funds / Minimum Capital Requirement) Ratio of 707.87%.
• INTERLIFE does not possess proportional contracts but reinsurance contracts that can reach up to 1 million.

MGI – Media and Games Invest (MGI) continues to steadily gain market share in a difficult trading environment. It is the leading mobile open web supply-side platform on both Android and iOS in North America, and second on Android and fifth on iOS in EMEA. Q323 organic net revenue was 1% up on Q322, with early benefits from the €10m annualised cost savings plan helping to lift the adjusted EBITDA margin to 29% (Q322: 26%). The fundamentals for MGI are positive, with its vertical integration giving an efficient market proposition and earlier acquisitions providing a sound basis for its connected TV offering. The withdrawal of personal identifiers on Google should give further impetus, which we feel is not yet reflected in the rating.

• NTGR has brought back the goal of achieving double digit operating margin after three years of underperformance while turning the business around.
• Unlike prior years where NTGR was relying on unit volume growth to drive operating leverage, NTGR now has a growing base of subscription revenue that is contributing to earnings
• NTGR’s annual investor day highlighted the expectation of exiting 2023 with annual recurring revenue (“ARR”) of $40 million and $50 million in 2024