Daily BriefsEquity Bottom-Up

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Japan Weekly | Ibiden and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Ibiden, Fanuc, Canon
  • September Brazil Bank Data Charts – Arrears Imply Better NPLs Trends to Come; Have Spreads Peaked?
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): Better-Than-Expected Q3 Result; Guidance Raised 2nd Time This Year
  • Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic
  • Micron Technology: The New York Mega Fab & Other Drivers
  • Rio Tinto ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy
  • Nike Inc: The Connected Partnership & Other Drivers

Japan Weekly | Ibiden, Fanuc, Canon

By Mark Chadwick

  • NKY +0.80%WoW;  TOPIX +0.91%WoW;  TSE Mothers +3.0%WoW.  3 days up; 2 days down this week as small caps; high valuation and tech stocks rallied
  • PM Kishida orders additional fiscal stimulus of ¥29.1 trillion.  Including other private sector investment and funding, the total stimulus size to exceed ¥71 trillion.
  • Bank of Japan maintains their ultra looks monetary policy in place at the end of their 2-day policy meeting

September Brazil Bank Data Charts – Arrears Imply Better NPLs Trends to Come; Have Spreads Peaked?

By Victor Galliano

  • In September, we highlight that data on credit in arrears (15-90 days overdue) showed MoM improvements in all our measures; this implies a positive leading indicator for NPLs
  • System loan growth was +16.8% for the twelve months to September, a slight acceleration from the August YoY rate (+16.7%), due largely to faster corporate loan growth
  • New credit spreads appear to have peaked, even if spreads on average loans are set to remain elevated; we favour Banco do Brasil, for good credit quality and attractive valuations

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): Better-Than-Expected Q3 Result; Guidance Raised 2nd Time This Year

By Tina Banerjee

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US) reported 18% y/y revenue growth to $2.3 billion, led by 46% growth outside the U.S. on continued strong uptake of Trikafta. U.S. revenue grew 5% y/y.
  • The company raised full-year 2022 product revenue guidance by 2% at the mid-point to $8.8–8.9 billion, representing 17% y/y growth at the mid-point.
  • The company will submit biologics licensing application (BLA) for exa-cel to the FDA, beginning in November 2022 and expects to complete the submission by the end of Q1 2023.

Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

By Aaron Gabin

  • Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.
  • CEO Gelsinger’s PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn’t bet on a down MSD 2023 market.
  • Datacenter…which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter… an astonishing fall.

Micron Technology: The New York Mega Fab & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Micron delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, missing out on the revenue expectations of Wall Street but managing an earnings beat.
  • As a result, demand is being reduced for the other parts of the supply chain, which already have more than enough inventory, because the servers cannot be built.
  • Therefore, although the overall demand for clouds is generally healthy, this is one factor that is having an impact on it.

Rio Tinto ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on global metals and mining giant, Rio Tinto.
  • The company has been witnessing a decent demand for all of its primary commodities as per recent results.
  • Moreover, the Rio Tinto Safe Production System is still being effectively implemented, and there are now 15 deployments at 11 sites, up from 5 sites at the beginning of the year.

Nike Inc: The Connected Partnership & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nike successfully delivered yet another all-around beat in the first quarter of the new fiscal with its key brands, Nike, Jordan, and Converse continue to enjoy strong consumer affinity and demand.
  • For the quarter, their revenue grew by double-digits and the company generated the highest net revenue quarter ever for Nike Digital.
  • Customers are still supporting Nike Digital, as evidenced by the Nike commerce app’s record-breaking Q1 traffic.

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