Daily BriefsEquity Bottom-Up

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN): Domestic Revenue Drives Q1FY25 Result; Full-Year Margin Guidance Raise and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN): Domestic Revenue Drives Q1FY25 Result; Full-Year Margin Guidance Raise
  • Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing
  • [Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Management Might Have Been Overly Optimistic


Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN): Domestic Revenue Drives Q1FY25 Result; Full-Year Margin Guidance Raise

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN) reported 12% YoY growth in domestic revenue to INR8.7B in Q1FY25. The company has delivered market beating growth in both acute and chronic segments.
  • Standalone EBITDA margin expanded 312bps YoY to 22.3% (FY25 guidance: 21%). Margin improvement is driven by favorable product mix, lower input costs as well as lower manufacturing and other costs.
  • Ipca is reducing FY25 revenue growth guidance to ~9.0% from 10.5–11.0% and raising FY25 consolidated EBITDA margin guidance by 0.5–1.0% to 18.5–19.0%.

Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Media rife with narrative of booming inbound foreign tourism to China
  • But the numbers are well below historical highs, and climbing up from low base
  • Chinese tourists, not foreign, determine strength of Chinese tourism recovery

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Management Might Have Been Overly Optimistic

By Eric Wen

  • Miniso (MNSO) reported C2Q24 revenue (3.2%)/1.9% vs. our estimate/consensus. Non-GAAP NI (5.6%)/(2.7%) vs. our estimate/consensus. 
  • Recent weak economic data in both China and U.S.,along with MNSO’s deceleration in overseas average store sales;
  • We cut TP from US$34 to US$24 and maintain BUY.

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