In today’s briefing:
- Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN): Domestic Revenue Drives Q1FY25 Result; Full-Year Margin Guidance Raise
- Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing
- [Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Management Might Have Been Overly Optimistic
Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN): Domestic Revenue Drives Q1FY25 Result; Full-Year Margin Guidance Raise
- Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN) reported 12% YoY growth in domestic revenue to INR8.7B in Q1FY25. The company has delivered market beating growth in both acute and chronic segments.
- Standalone EBITDA margin expanded 312bps YoY to 22.3% (FY25 guidance: 21%). Margin improvement is driven by favorable product mix, lower input costs as well as lower manufacturing and other costs.
- Ipca is reducing FY25 revenue growth guidance to ~9.0% from 10.5–11.0% and raising FY25 consolidated EBITDA margin guidance by 0.5–1.0% to 18.5–19.0%.
Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing
- Media rife with narrative of booming inbound foreign tourism to China
- But the numbers are well below historical highs, and climbing up from low base
- Chinese tourists, not foreign, determine strength of Chinese tourism recovery
[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Management Might Have Been Overly Optimistic
- Miniso (MNSO) reported C2Q24 revenue (3.2%)/1.9% vs. our estimate/consensus. Non-GAAP NI (5.6%)/(2.7%) vs. our estimate/consensus.
- Recent weak economic data in both China and U.S.,along with MNSO’s deceleration in overseas average store sales;
- We cut TP from US$34 to US$24 and maintain BUY.