In today’s briefing:
- HYBE: Korean Govt Mandates BTS Members to Enlist in Military – 50% Further Downside Risk Ahead
- Money Forward – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Revenue Is Growing but so Are EBITDA Losses
- Money Forward (3994) | Major Improvement in Corporate Client Acquisition
- Money Forward: Top Line Beats Consensus but Losses Widen Further
- Fast Retailing – The New Medium-Term Plan For Europe Is As Ambitious As The North America Plan
- Why Roblox’s September Metrics Are Even Better Than They Appear
- Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Solid MSME Dominator with a Digital Edge
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Tech Day Today, Apple Drops China Supplier; Shows Severity of New Rules
HYBE: Korean Govt Mandates BTS Members to Enlist in Military – 50% Further Downside Risk Ahead
- On 17 October, the Korean government made a final official decision to have the BTS members serve in the mandatory military service.
- We believe this will have a major negative impact on the sales and profits of HYBE in the next several years.
- As a result of the Korean government formalizing the BTS members to enlist in the military, we believe that HYBE’s share price could fall more than 50% from current levels.
Money Forward – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Revenue Is Growing but so Are EBITDA Losses
- Revenue growth rebounded in Q4 and was the best in six quarters as corporate sales accelerated, particularly in the medium business segment
- But EBITDA losses accelerated and whilst management says this is the peak quarter, this is the first time since 2019 that EBITDA excluding advertising costs was negative
- Guidance for Q4 is mixed with a conservative revenue target and a only a modest reduction in EBITDA losses
Money Forward (3994) | Major Improvement in Corporate Client Acquisition
- Money Forward Q3 sales rose +42% YoY to Y5.5bn driven by corporate ARR (+54% YoY)
- Net sales, ARR, and EBITDA loss of -Y1.9bn all in line with company guidance
- Growth investment starting to pay off as Corporate Client acquisition rate DOUBLES
Money Forward: Top Line Beats Consensus but Losses Widen Further
- Money Forward reported 3QFY11/2022 results. Revenue increased 42.2% YoY to JPY5.45bn (vs consensus JPY5.40bn) while adjusted op.losses further widened to JPY2.5bn vs JPY449m in the same period a year ago.
- Though top line growth has resumed following a slowdown in 2QFY11/2022, MF’s margins have further worsened with increased investment in advertising, staff and subsidies.
- MF’s share price fell almost 8% following earnings announcement as investors are concerned over deteriorating profitability.
Fast Retailing – The New Medium-Term Plan For Europe Is As Ambitious As The North America Plan
- Fast Retailing (9983 JP)’s 4QFY22 was yet again a surprise to the upside as revenue grew 23.2% YoY to ¥536.0bn while OP grew 24.3% YoY to ¥26.2bn.
- Having rallied close to 60% following an earnings beat in 3QFY22, we were bearish on the company expecting weak guidance for FY23, but the company surprised with optimistic FY23 guidance.
- With China struggling to maintain the historical growth momentum and North-America falling short of its medium-term plan, we anticipate downside to Fast Retailing’s FY23 guidance over the next 12 months.
Why Roblox’s September Metrics Are Even Better Than They Appear
- Roblox is proving out management’s assertion that bookings growth would reaccelerate in the back half of the year.
- The company extended its average user life from 25 to 28 months. Signal of falling churn.
- Roblox usage continues to dwarf all other social media; DAUs spend 2.5x more time per day than TikTok or Instagram users.
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Solid MSME Dominator with a Digital Edge
- Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) remains the best proxy for Indonesia’s huge and underbanked MSME sector, which accounts for around 60% of the country’s economy.
- The bank now has over 83% of loans exposed to the micro segment and has a long-track record operating in the micro space, with a sound record of managing risk.
- Bank Rakyat continues to increasingly utilise digital channels utilise digital channels to expand its network and reduce costs. Valuations remain attractive and a an ongoing recovery in place.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Tech Day Today, Apple Drops China Supplier; Shows Severity of New Rules
- Major milestones for Hon Hai’s EV platform could be unveiled at today’s Hon Hai Tech Day.
- Apple’s dropping of a key China supplier shows how international players may want to just avoid even non-restricted products from China.
- Senior semiconductor executives across the industry are halting work for China-based firms, including some leading Chinese execs.
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