In today’s briefing:
- Fushan Energy (639 HK): Cash 80% of Market Cap, 100% Payout Implies 12% Trailing Dividend Yield
- KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%
- ENN Energy (2688 HK): Valuing ENN Natural Gas H-Share
- Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO
- China TCM (570.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook Based on 2024 Results
- Gap Trade Opportunities in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 2Q 2025
- India Air Conditioners | Who’s Chilling How
- Vodafone Idea: Another Lifeline, But Structural Challenges Persist
- Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
- Notes from Conversation with ANGI IR
Fushan Energy (639 HK): Cash 80% of Market Cap, 100% Payout Implies 12% Trailing Dividend Yield
- Shougang Fushan Resources’ (639 HK) FY24 revenues/profits were down 14%/21% YoY due to the decline in coking coal prices, which were 14% YoY to 1666 RMB/ton (on similar volumes).
- At 1295 RMB/ton, spot prices are 25% lower than last year’s average, yet the stock is supported by cash, which represents 80% of its market capitalization (10 billion HKD).
- The company provided a 100% payout of 30 HKD cents, resulting in a 12% dividend yield; however, at current spot prices, the yield is 7%.
KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%
- Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24.
- The growth rate of active stores and active agents accelerated quarter by quarter.
- We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$42.00. Buy.
ENN Energy (2688 HK): Valuing ENN Natural Gas H-Share
- We calculated that after the privatisation of ENN Energy (2688 HK), the EPS of ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) will be Rmb1.94 for FY25F and Rmb2.11 for FY26F.
- By using ENN Energy’s undisturbed PER (with and without a 10% discount) and Kunlun Energy (135 HK)‘s ex-cash PER, ENN-NG H-share is worth 6.8-7.9x for FY25F and 6.3-7.2x for FY26F.
- ENN-NG H-share is hence valued at HK$14.11-16.37, implying that ENN Energy’s value under the privatisation proposal is HK$66.02-72.67, which is lower than Somerly’s HK$80 estimate.
Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO
- Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me the truth
- I intend to under promise and over deliver. I will not be satisfied until we delight you
- How long will I stay at Intel? I’m here for as long as it takes
China TCM (570.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook Based on 2024 Results
- TCM finished drugs and TCM decoction pieces businesses could be the second and third growth curve of China TCM when the concentrated TCM granules business is facing VBP headwinds.
- 2024 would be the performance low point. Due to 2024 low base, we would see positive growth in 2025.Performance recovery is expected in next three years based on our forecast.
- Annual profit of RMB1 billion is achievable. If based on 10x P/E, market value is RMB10 billion.We think if valuations fall below RMB10 billion, investors can consider buying on dips.
Gap Trade Opportunities in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 2Q 2025
- In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trade opportunities involving Korean preferred and common shares in 2Q 2025.
- The following five pairs (between common and prefs) have experienced more than 10% difference in their share prices in the past six months.
- These five pairs (LG Chem, Amorepacific Corp, Amorepacific Group, CJ Cheiljedang, and Korea Investment Holdings) are more likely to revert to closing their gaps in the coming weeks.
India Air Conditioners | Who’s Chilling How
- In this Insight, we aim to understand the current demand, environment, competition, and margin trends for major air conditioner manufacturers in India.
- Dealers remain optimistic despite a slower seasonal start, anticipating accelerated growth in this season. While there have been price increases, competition, and cost inflation may not translate into margins.
- Some of the companies in Focus include Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN), Havells India (HAVL IN), Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India (JCHAC IN).
Vodafone Idea: Another Lifeline, But Structural Challenges Persist
- GoI converts ₹36,950 crore of spectrum dues into equity, increasing its stake to ~49%. Promoters’ stake diluted to ~25.5%, with public shareholders now owning just ~23.8%.
- While the move eases cash outflows till H1FY28, Vodafone Idea’s AGR dues, weak subscriber base, and funding needs remain material headwinds.
- Structural concerns remain unresolved, and further dilution risks persist along with loosing market share.
Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
- In January 2024, SHiDAX Corporation was consolidated as a subsidiary, boosting sales and EBITDA in Q4 FY03/24.
- Cumulative Q3 FY03/25 progress rates: 75.9% sales, 93.7% EBITDA, 84.4% operating profit, 110.5% net income.
- B2C Subscription sales decreased YoY, but segment profit increased due to higher ARPU and cost-efficient acquisitions.
Notes from Conversation with ANGI IR
- On March 31st 2025 I spoke to Mark Schneider of investor relations from IAC.
- Mark currently covers investor relations for Angi, Inc as well. but Angi will be hiring its new head of investor relations soon.
- Our conversation was productive and increased my confidence in the outlook for Angi.
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