Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Episode 73: Nvidia’s Moment and more

• Nvidia surpasses $3 trillion valuation, a first in semiconductor industry
• Company’s rapid growth raises concerns about stock market dynamics
• Debate on Nvidia’s dominance in AI computing and comparisons to past tech industry booms.

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• The new excitement of the MS&AD story is the company’s commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends.
• ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends.
• Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.

• Oriental Watch (398 HK) reported revenue/profits down 2%/15% YoY for the full year (vs our expectation of 10%). H2 revenue/profitability fell 12%/22% YoY due to a weak Q4. 
• Cash and investments fell from 1.1 bn to 920 mn HKD, owing to dividend payments, increased inventories, and reduced payables.  Cash represents 55% of market capitalization. 
• The company maintains a 100% dividend payout, but dividends declined in line with earnings to 51.5 cents (FY23: 60 cents), representing a 15% dividend yield. 

• Delta Taiwan has outperformed Delta Taiwan recently. The parent vs. subsidiary market cap ratio is now trading consistently over 1.0x. and can go higher in our view.
• Nvidia opportunities and other similar cutting edge technologies will first go to Delta Electronics Taiwan (2308 TT) and not to Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB).
• Conclusion — Expect further Delta Taiwan outperformance over the long-term vs. Delta Thailand.

• Data Centers — Traditional Data Center Recovery Starting; In Addition to HBM Demand, SSD Memory Seeing Strength for AI Applications
• PCs — Upcycle to Accelerate “Late CY2024E”, Driven by Windows 12 and End of Windows 10
• Mobile Devices — Moderate Growth in CY2024E; Potential for Smartphone Upgrade Cycle Acceleration

• Japan’s rising defense budget and military collaboration with the US and Europe should support a high level of orders for the foreseeable future.
• Defense is the growth driver, but other divisions should hold up well due to the ongoing rationalization of operations.
• Profits should rebound this year and rise further in FY Mar-26, bringing the P/E down to 9X or less. The weak yen is a large positive. 

• Tesla Tops Storage: Tesla dominates North American battery storage (25% market share) as renewables rise, deploying a record 4,053 MWh in Q1 2024.
• Explosive Industry Growth: U.S. battery storage market projected for a staggering 30.5% CAGR until 2030, driven by clean energy transition.
• Forefront of Innovation: CATL revealed TENER, a mass-producible energy storage system with zero degradation for five years achieving 430Wh/L density. Innovation to continue fueling growth.

• The company’s targets are underwhelming given the opportunity but low expectations built in
• A revamped strategy to increase profitability and shareholder returns is “radical” for this old-school company
• Execution is key for certain parts of the plan, but the market can do the rest

• Humanoid robot development is rapidly advancing with improvements in AI, mobility, and interaction capabilities, exciting progress being made.
• China’s cloud service spending expected to surge 20% by 2024, with the country leading the hydrogen race through policies and demand.
• Former TSMC R&D director sheds light on Taiwan chip industry facing geopolitical shifts, reaching a crucial crossroads amidst declining semiconductor market.

• ASX is seeing the number of listed companies in decline, although there are some positives with average daily turnover and secondary listings.
• Higher costs are keeping positives from reaching the bottom line fully, with costs to revenue are now 40% in 1H24 where this was 29% in recent interim periods.
• Capex plans for ASX and sticky inflationary figures on staff costs, the current year and following year net profit can see reasonable pressure.