Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Ecopro – Is This the Start of the End? and more

• A SELL note from a broker on Ecopro BM Co Ltd (247540 KS) was a key reason for the 7% and 8+% fall for Ecopro Co Ltd (086520 KS) .  
• Is this finally start of the end of the rally for the poster boy for Korean EV 
• When will earnings matter and what are the catalysts that could start the downfall?

• Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) announced 1Q2023 results with encouragingly strong headline growth coupled with even stronger revenues as take rates increased, with its marketplace being the standout driven by specialty verticals. 
• Mitra Bukalapak also registered solid growth, with increasing active Mitra’s with greater frequency, higher take rates, and an improvement in contribution margin which should turn positive over the next 2Qs. 
• Take rates should continue to improve as the specialty businesses pick up momentum, and once the Mitra business turns CM positive, growth in that segment will also accelerate.

• Japan Tobacco’s 1Q23 performance exceeded consensus expectations, with revenue and OP surpassing by 5.3% and 12.3%, respectively.
• Consensus expected no volume growth for Japan Tobacco in declining combustible tobacco market; targeted mid-single digit constant currency revenue growth via pricing.
• Higher cigarette prices are expected to contribute to Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)‘s OP growth, which we anticipate will exceed its historical peak levels in the next few years.

• China Communications Construction (1800 HK) should see more valuation upside as it narrows the discount to book through more asset disposal, spin-off, restructuring and securitisation.
• Healthy 1Q23 earnings demonstrated underlying business strength. We expect new contract growth to accelerate in the rest of this year. Backlog estimated to cover 4.7x FY23F revenue.
• Gross margin has stabilised in 1Q23 when compared with 1Q in previous years. Contribution from concessions will improve as traffic recovers and projects get mature. 

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome NFC Indonesia’s Group Head of Corporate Finance & Strategy, Stanley Tijandra.

In the upcoming webinar, Stanley will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Angus Mackintosh. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 09 May 2023, 17:00 SGT.

About NFC Indonesia

PT NFC Indonesia Tbk (IDX: NFCX), a subsidiary of PT M Cash Integrasi Tbk (IDX: MCAS), is a digital customer experience company that offers a complete suite of services aimed at assisting the retail industry in improving customer engagement and competitiveness, in Indonesia’s growing economic biosphere, through its five main initiatives: Digital Product Aggregator, Digital Cloud Advertising, Content & Entertainment, Digital Wholesale, and Clean Energy.

• We expect Hua Hong to report C1Q23 top-line, IFRS operating income, and IFRS net income in-line, 14.1% and 19.1% vs. consensus, respectively. 
• Our sample of 1Q23 A-share fabless balance sheets showed that inventory days rose, which we expect will lead to a slowdown in wafer orders beginning in 2Q23.
• Despite near-term weakness, we are positive the longer-term benefits of (1) localization, and (2) EV demand. We maintain BUY and raise TP to HKD35.

• China Fortune Land Development Co. Ltd said it successfully restructured more than 80% of its 219 billion yuan ($31.7 billion) debt overhang.
• The cash-strapped private developer returned to profitability after two years of liquidity crisis
• Hebei province-based China Fortune Land signed agreements with creditors to restructure 180.6 billion yuan of debts through various means by the end of 2022, accounting for 82.4% of total outstanding debt

Vection Technologies’ Q323 activities report confirms that contract growth continued to accelerate in H223, with the company reporting 100% total contract value (TCV) growth from the end of January to 28 April. The momentum in TCV growth indicates that management is well-positioned to deliver the triple-digit half-on-half top-line growth required to reach its FY23 expectations. Cash receipts on a quarterly and nine-month basis increased year-on-year. Vection Technologies’ balance sheet is set to be sustained by a further A$3.5m in Q423 from an R&D tax receipt and outstanding invoices, supporting the company’s M&A pipeline.

Shield Therapeutics reported its FY22 preliminary results and Q123 business update, the key emphasis of which was the growing traction of Accrufer in the US following the December 2022 co-commercialisation deal with Viatris. The FY22 revenue of £4.5m (+194% y-o-y) was driven by Accrufer US sales (£2.9m vs £0.1m in FY21) and underpinned by a material q-o-q growth in prescriptions during FY22 (25,200 vs 2,500 in FY21). Encouragingly, this trend has continued in Q123 (10,500 prescriptions; +12% q-o-q growth) despite initial operational disruptions related to the integration. With the salesforce approaching full strength (total 100 people) by May, we anticipate H223 to be a vital period for sales traction and market coverage. We have updated our FY23–24 pricing and costs estimates for the FY22 results but maintain our long-term Accrufer growth assumptions. Our revised valuation is £388.9m (£403.4m previously).