In today’s briefing:
- CP ALL (CPALL TB) – Increasing Size and Diversity
- China Healtchare Weely (Mar.16) – 2025 VBP Instructions, GLP-1s Cooling Down, Zai Lab’s Headwinds
- CDL (CIT SP): Corporate Governance Casualty. Shareholder Pain Runs Deeper than Promoter Family Feud
- Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback
- Salesforce.Com Inc – Salesforce’s Growth Is Slowing—Can Agentforce Turn Things Around?
- Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) Silver Rally Is a Sweetener
- Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer
- Home Depot’s Surprise Sales Rebound—But Is It Enough to Overcome a Tough 2025?
- Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook
- The TJX Companies: How Consumer Demographic Diversification Is Playing A Critical Role In Its Strategy!
CP ALL (CPALL TB) – Increasing Size and Diversity
- A meeting with CP ALL (CPALL TB) management revealed some interesting new initiatives to drive growth as the company remains upbeat about its store expansion for 2025.
- The company is moving towards opening larger-sized stores, with more RTE and RTD offerings and some parking and food vendors outside, which will help diversify merchandise offerings..
- It is unclear what direction Seven & I’s restructuring will take, but looking through that, the company is trading on historically attractive valuations.
China Healtchare Weely (Mar.16) – 2025 VBP Instructions, GLP-1s Cooling Down, Zai Lab’s Headwinds
- The NHSA has issued clear instructions for VBP in 2025, including two batches of national VBP of drugs and one batch of medical consumables VBP. TCM will also be included.
- The sales growth of GLP-1s has entered a turning point, it will be far from the previously high expectations. The actual market size of GLP-1s could be only US$100 billion.
- Rapid sales growth of Efgartigimod is the key factor for Zai Lab to narrow the losses.But whether it can be breakeven relies on the decline of cost/expenses, not revenue growth.
CDL (CIT SP): Corporate Governance Casualty. Shareholder Pain Runs Deeper than Promoter Family Feud
- City Developments (CIT SP) aka CDL’s boardroom battle, framed as a family feud, grabbed media attention and overshadowed more serious, long-ignored corporate governance issues.
- Despite prolonged underperformance and founder-family control controversies, CDL’s board have failed to enact decisive reforms to restore shareholder value.
- The CDL saga exposes systemic risks in family-run, publicly listed firms where often corporate governance gets compromised and minority shareholder interests are undermined.
Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback
- Seven & I continues to seek shareholder approval for its own path, offering not just improved efficiency but a massive ¥2 trillion buyback albeit one over a long time frame.
- This is a lot, especially when the core Seven Eleven chain in Japan is still struggling to keep up with its peers on monthly growth rates.
- But this forgets retail media which is set to become a major new income stream for CVS and, judging by forecasts, would help pay for a chunk of that buyback.
Salesforce.Com Inc – Salesforce’s Growth Is Slowing—Can Agentforce Turn Things Around?
- Salesforce delivered a strong financial performance for fiscal year 2025, showcasing significant progress in its AI and Data Cloud initiatives.
- The company reported annual revenue of $37.9 billion, reflecting a 9% increase from the prior year, with fourth-quarter revenue reaching $10 billion—its first-ever $10 billion quarter.
- Subscription and support revenue grew by 10% in constant currency, indicating continued demand for its enterprise software solutions.
Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) Silver Rally Is a Sweetener
- Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) is set to see significant earnings upgrades driven surge in silver prices (40% EBITDA share), local currency weakness and benign costs.
- Planning for major US$2-2.5b growth expenditure to double output over next 3=5 years.
- Valuations: Entering a strong earnings upgrades cycle. Stock can re-rate despite trading at slight premium to historic averages. Stake sales by key holders is a risk.
Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer
- Earnings Momentum in 2025 – Canon expects 5% revenue growth and 17% EBIT expansion this year, driven by high-margin segments like semiconductor lithography, medical devices, and network cameras.
- Aggressive Shareholder Returns – With ¥350 billion in planned buybacks and dividends in 2024, Canon’s 6.8% TSR and strong free cash flow offer a compelling value proposition.
- De-Risked Upside – 2025 guidance provides earnings visibility, while valuation suggests ~40% upside, supported by resilient end-markets and an under-leveraged balance sheet.
Home Depot’s Surprise Sales Rebound—But Is It Enough to Overcome a Tough 2025?
- Home Depot’s latest financial results presented a mixed picture, with some encouraging signs of recovery despite a cautious outlook for the coming year.
- Total sales for fiscal 2024 rose 4.5% to $159.5 billion, though comparable sales for the year declined by 1.8%.
- However, fourth-quarter same-store sales showed improvement, rising 0.8%—breaking an eight-quarter streak of declines and exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 1.5% drop.
Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook
- PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.
- The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.
- Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.
The TJX Companies: How Consumer Demographic Diversification Is Playing A Critical Role In Its Strategy!
- The TJX Companies, Inc. reported robust financial performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, exceeding expectations in multiple areas.
- With net sales of $16.4 billion, which marks a 5% increase over last year’s adjusted figures, the company demonstrated consistent strength across all divisions.
- The driving factor was a 5% increase in consolidated comparable store sales, which stemmed from increased customer transactions.
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