Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.15) - Anti-Corruption Turnaround? Vaccine Policy Changes and more

In today’s briefing:

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.15) – Anti-Corruption Turnaround? Vaccine Policy Changes, Kangtai Bio
TSMC (2330.TT): A Bit Higher Rebound in 4Q23F
CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Banking on Strong Growth in Immunoglobulin Franchise on Record Plasma Collection

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.15) – Anti-Corruption Turnaround? Vaccine Policy Changes, Kangtai Bio

The National Health Commission and The People’s Daily made “mild” statements about anti-corruption in China healthcare, bringing investors “new hope”. However, there could be a “misconception” regarding the anti-corruption movement.
There was news that some type 2 vaccines could be converted to type 1 vaccines. Even though some vaccines will be affected by this policy, others will not.
Kangtai’s had strong 23H1 net profit, but it has little investment value due to lack of core R&D strength.Kangtai’s vaccines face the risk of being included in national immunization program.

We foresee a potentially higher rebound in the near future, resulting in higher growth rate in 2023F for TSMC.
Due to the ramping up of production for 3nm, the GM is expected to decrease by 2-3%. However, there is an policy to add up at least 2% for TSMC.
The CoWoS is still being closely watched because of NVDA’s demand, and it will take time to get TSMC ready to satisfy the likely demand for CoWoS.

CSL Ltd (CSL AU) expects strong growth in immunoglobulin franchise to continue following record plasma collections. Optimizing plasma collection costs, improving yields, and new products launches should support margin recovery.
In June 2023, first patient has received Hemgenix in the U.S. With global annual peak sales estimate of $2.4B in 2030, Hemgenix is a compelling opportunity for CSL.
CSL Seqirus is anticipated to deliver another strong year driven by demand for its differentiated products. The company began influenza vaccine shipment across the U.S. for 2023–24 influenza season.

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