Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.2)- VBP Correction and more

In today’s briefing:

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.2)- VBP Correction, Sales Ability Overweigh R&D, Expectation Difference
Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Set to Benefit from Roaring OTC Business and New Rx Drug Launch
High Conviction Idea: Yili

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.2)- VBP Correction, Sales Ability Overweigh R&D, Expectation Difference

The renewal results of coronary stent centralized procurement reflected that the government’s attitude towards the price reduction in VBP has changed, who tend to correct the excessively low price.
Investors’d better not to have such a misconception that they only attach importance to R&D rather than commercialization. Only if sales ability is verified can enterprises have better valuation premium.
Investors are advised to find the targets that are in “sector resonance” but also has “difference in expectations”. Ecology of innovative drug has changed, such as Remegen (688331 CH).

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) reported revenue growth of 8% y/y and 26% q/q to ¥33B in Q2FY23, mainly driven by a 14% y/y 47% q/q increase in OTC business.
This year, the company received FDA approval for Xelstrym transdermal system for ADHD. Xelstrym is the first-and-only FDA-approved transdermal amphetamine patch.
With the resumption of sporting/outdoor events in Japan, Salonpas is expected to continue its growth trajectory. For FY23, Hisamitsu is targeting Salonpas revenue of ¥32.5 billion (+4.5% y/y).

Yili is the largest dairy company in China with established entry barriers of brand and products.
Yili aims to join the world’s top three dairy enterprises by 2025 and strives to seize first place by 2030.
Management announced the plan of a revenue CAGR of ~10% y/y between 2021 and 2025 and margin improvement of 50bps each year.

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