Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally and more

• China Dongxiang (3818 HK) stands on a discount of 82.1% to NAV after factoring in the recent market rally, not limiting to its Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) holdings.
• Its listed equities may have gained Rmb314m, but the HK$41m market capitalisation growth has not reflected this. The gains on its unlisted investments have not been included yet.  
• CNDX is now more likely to have a positive swing in the bottom line in FY25. Its tiny sportswear business has also witnessed a sequential moderation in sales decline. 

• Key iPhone components suppliers’ share prices have substantially underperformed Apple, particularly Largan Precision, Genius Electronic Optical, and Zhen Ding.
• There are reasons for iPhone 16 upgrade optimism. We also note that key suppliers failed to rally with Apple shares post-Fed rate cut.
• Apple suppliers’ 2025E forecasts haven’t fallen much so far, despite the negative stock market reaction. If negative iPhone 16 reports prove exaggerated, Largan, Genius, and Zhen Ding could rebound.

• In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2024.
• Volatility has been high in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks resulting in some interesting widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea. 
• Of the 38 pair trades, 19 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 19 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period. 

• Tesla aims for 462,000 deliveries in Q3 2024, with analysts predicting actual numbers could reach 470,000 units. This increase highlights strong demand, particularly in China.
• Vehicle registrations in China rose nearly 20% QoQ, driven by the Model Y’s popularity. Despite expiring subsidies, Tesla expects Q3 deliveries to exceed its previous best quarter by 5%.
• Tesla’s stock is up only 4.85% year-to-date, significantly lagging the S&P 500’s 21% rise. Factors include declining EV demand, price cuts affecting margins, and increased competition.

• Liquid cooling solutions for AI servers are evolving rapidly to provide more efficient and effective cooling for high-performance computing needs.
• L&T Semicon in India plans to mass produce its first chip within the next two years, showing growth and innovation in the semiconductor industry.
• Taiwan is focusing on modular, intelligent, and collaborative robotics solutions for niche markets, with a shift away from humanoids in its approach to robotics.

• Considering 23H1 high base, it can be understood that 24H1 achieved a low single-digit growth. If excluding gain on disposal of subsidiaries, net profit in 24H1 would have negative growth.
• Mainland China contributed about 90% of total revenue, but an imminent risk is VBP, which will pose a challenge to the pricing autonomy of Tong Ren Tang’s OTC TCM drugs. 
• After absorbing the high base impact of 2023 this year, performance growth would return to double digits in 2025. Tong Ren Tang is undervalued. Reasonable valuation is P/E of 15.

• UMP Healthcare (722 HK) reported a tepid FY24 owing to weak sentiment in HK. Revenues were up 3% YoY; profits were down 27% YoY ( adj profits -34% YoY). 
• The environment in HK is gradually improving, and we believe there is a steady recovery on the horizon for the company.
• The stock trades at 7x FY25 PE and more than 58% of its market cap in net cash, with a yield trending towards 9%. 

• KULR Technology Group, Inc. develops and commercializes high-performance thermal management technologies for electronics, batteries, and other components across a range of applications.
• Currently, it is focused on high performance aerospace and Department of Defense applications, such as space exploration, satellite communications, and underwater vehicles, and applying them to mass market commercial applications, such as lithium-ion battery energy storage, electric vehicles, 5G, cloud computer infrastructure, consumer and industrial devices.
• It is also applying its zero-vibration technology to fans in commercial markets which could be a large revenue opportunity.

• XLMedia (XLM) has historically disappointed investors on AIM as a value trap
• Potential catalyst for over 100% upside in next 12 months
• Key factors in place for a turnaround, including cornerstone investor and focus on US gambling market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

AFT Pharmaceuticals has taken another major step in extending its international footprint, with the signing of an exclusive license agreement for Maxigesic IV in China, the second-largest pharma market globally after the US. The agreement has been signed with Xizang Weixinkang Pharmaceutical, a major hospitals injectables focused company, and includes an upfront payment of US$300k along with development and sales-related milestones and royalty payments. Partner Hyloris Pharmaceuticals is entitled to a minority share of the payment, which we believe will be 35%, in line with the deal structure with Hikma in the US. China is a key lever for AFT’s international growth efforts, and we expect Maxigesic IV to be AFT’s second product to be launched in the country, following the anticipated launch of Crystaderm in Q4 CY24.