Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Consumption Weekly: HSI and more

• We believe Hang Seng Index’s tumble was due to a comment in a governmental newspaper.
• BYD announced that it will sell three models of new energy vehicles in Indonesia.
• Trip.com began to sell tickets of scenic locations via the Kuaishou app.

• We identified Kato Sangyo (9869 JP) (Kato) as the most attractive Japanese laggard opportunity due to its net cash balance sheet, undemanding PER, and attractive PEG and P/FCF ratios  
• Management guides for 25% EPS growth in FY24 with only 15% net profit growth, implying a massive share buyback of ~JPY9 billion (5.4% shares in issue) with subsequent cancellation       
• The combination of impending share buybacks, cancellation of existing treasury shares, and dividends equates to 10% shareholder returns in FY24   

• In this insight, we discuss how Temu and AliExpress have been taking away meaningful market share away from Coupang (CPNG US) in Korea in the past year. 
• Temu’s MAU skyrocketed in the past year in Korea. Temu’s MAU surged from zero in January 2023 to 3.28 million as of December 2023.
• One could argue that Coupang’s valuations are overvalued relative to its Chinese competitors such as PDD Holdings (PDD US).

• Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) has been the predictable play for a rebound in domestic tourism in China.
• 1H23 result did not show anything that should alert investors to the changes in business practices.
• The recent profit warning disclosure has alerted investors that there is something else beyond the usual.

• A capitulation-type event for the Hong Kong market is ongoing.
• High-Dividend stocks will provide a safer return regardless of broader market moves.
• A false breakdown below Oct 2022 support will provide a signal for higher-beta exposure.

• A Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Lendlease Global: Sustainable Returns Through High-Quality Assets revealed a global commercial REIT with high-quality retail and office properties in Singapore and Italy.
• LREIT saw rental reversions of +16.3% YoY in its 1Q2024 with a portfolio committed occupancy of 99.9% and a weighted average lease expiry of 8.0 years by NLA.
• Management remains optimistic about the coming year with a strong capital position, a high level of sustainably linked finance, a low cost of debt, and an eye on potential acquisitions.

• Due to the ongoing earnings season, for the next couple of weeks, we will temporarily deviate from our regular format and instead focus on reported earnings.
• HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) – The core concerns that worry the street do warrant attention. While the management believes it is temporary, we anticipate some more incremental pain ahead. 
• Other interesting names highlighted include Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN), IndiaMart (INMART IN), Polycab India (POLYCAB IN), and Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN). 

• Plummeting ASPs likely pushed STO and Yunda OpInc margins below 0% in Q423
• The companies’ operating cash flow may be insufficient to fund needed capex
• Reduced investment could lead to slower growth, consolidation pressure in ’24

Key points (machine generated)

• Apple’s focus on carbon-neutral products and use of titanium in iPhone 15 Pro is driving interest in titanium resources.
• Sovereign Metals’ discovery of the world’s largest undeveloped natural rutile deposit has attracted the attention of Rio Tinto, which recently became the largest shareholder in the company.
• Titanium is considered a critical material due to supply shortages and China-controlled supply chains, with its use in Apple products highlighting its growing importance. Investment in Sovereign Metals offers an interesting opportunity, especially given the lack of upcoming funding requirements and a discount to Rio Tinto’s entry price.

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• In the world of 8-10% dividend-yielding commodities, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) almost makes the cut. We would wait for a better entry point here despite iron ore strength.
• We are also mindful of the risks associated with capex in the green energy space to achieve zero emissions and ramp costs with the recent production increase.
• We believe numbers are at par, trading at 9.6x PE on the current spot price (130 USD/ton) with a 7% dividend yield ( assuming a 65% payout ratio).