Daily BriefsEquity Bottom-Up

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China 2022 and more

In today’s briefing:

  • China 2022, Live Streaming Sales Attracted User Time, But Not Advertisers
  • HRTech Sector Series: Market Continues to Evolve While Post Covid Growth Begins to Slow Down
  • Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Profit to Improve This Year; China Reopening, New Products Hold Key
  • Novo Nordisk: Making Strides in the Obesity Market
  • February Brazil Bank Data in Charts – NPL Trends a Concern, yet Liquidity and Solvency Seem Sound
  • Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (2252.HK) – The Truth Behind the Beautiful Story Is Becoming Clearer

China 2022, Live Streaming Sales Attracted User Time, But Not Advertisers

By Ming Lu

  • Time spent on apps increased by 15% in China in 2022.
  • In 2022, total advertising market decreased by 9%, but online advertising market increased by 1%.
  • We believe online advertising market will grow significantly higher than total advertising market in 2023.

HRTech Sector Series: Market Continues to Evolve While Post Covid Growth Begins to Slow Down

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • This is the Fourth and Final of the HRTech Sector series and we will be discussing Ceridian, ADP, Recruit and Visional performance over the last quarter.
  • The remarkable growth spurt experienced post-Covid seems to be slowing down and margins and revenues have mostly returned to pre-COVID levels.
  • With digitisation of workplace, the market is expected to see further advancement in categories such as employee experience, talent intelligence, contract workforce management, etc.

Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Profit to Improve This Year; China Reopening, New Products Hold Key

By Tina Banerjee

  • Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP) is not seeing any change in competitive landscape of its key drug, Eylea, which contributes 27% of total revenue. No immediate biosimilar launch is expected.
  • Approval of bioidentical authorized generic version of Eylea in Japan, label expansion, and potential launch of high dose of the same drug will enable to combat with upcoming biosimilar competition.
  • Santen expects China market to revive in FY24. Additionally new products launch and widening geographic presence to drive mid-to-long-term growth of the company.

Novo Nordisk: Making Strides in the Obesity Market

By Alexis Dwek

  • Diabetes care growing strongly, with continuous market share gain, now reaching close to 35%
  • New chapter of growth has started as Novo makes strides in obesity, a larger market than diabetes.
  • Capex for 2023 and beyond is expected to double as Novo prepares capacity to supply a growing demand for its products

February Brazil Bank Data in Charts – NPL Trends a Concern, yet Liquidity and Solvency Seem Sound

By Victor Galliano

  • Our focus charts this month are on Brazil banks’ liquidity and capital adequacy trends, which seem reassuring to us, as these are currently topical bank ratios in investors’ minds
  • The February NPL trends due to seasonal factors, we are concerned at the pace of NPL ratio worsening and arrears, especially in household credit
  • YoY system loan growth to February decelerated further to +12.6%, largely due to slower corporate loan growth; credit spread trends were mixed with individual spreads widening, and corporate spreads eroding

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (2252.HK) – The Truth Behind the Beautiful Story Is Becoming Clearer

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • No matter how good a story is, it needs to be supported by sales data.If sales of Toumai cannot scale up, the complete closed-loop of surgical robot+consumables+solution/service would be groundless.
  • The commercialization dilemma has become “a dark cloud” for Medbot. Before Medbot makes any breakthrough in internationalization or establishes an effective profit model in China, the Company lacks investment logic.
  • The catalyst for stock prices from favorable policies is not lasting. Weaker-than-expected financial performance would quickly throw valuations into correction. As things stand, Medbot is only suitable for short-term trade.

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