In today’s briefing:
- Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Eureka Moment with Better Visibility Ahead
- Earnings Playbook | Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) | Troubling Rural B2C Business
- BABA’s Babies: They’re All Grown Now! Weibo the Twitter of China
- Key Insights from Qualcomm’s Latest Data; Mediatek Taking Market Share?
- Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-May-2024): Global changes affect Taiwan-China relations; business strategies evolve.
- Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) – We like the Focus on Oncology but Look for a Better Entry Point
- Lam Research Corporation: NAND Market Recovery & Critical Opportunities That Lie Ahead! – Major Drivers
- Meta Platforms: How Will The Adoption of AI Tools and Strategic Bets Change The Game? – Major Drivers
- Enphase Energy: Are Its Solar-Plus-Storage Products A Critical Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers
- Lasertec (6920 JP): Orders Up, Guidance Down
Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Eureka Moment with Better Visibility Ahead
- Bukalapak released its 1Q2024 results this week with some palpable relief as it booked its first adjusted EBITDA but underlying revenue growth remains strong, especially for its O2O business.
- The company saw take rates improve for both its Mitra O2O business and its marketplace businesses, helping to drive revenue growth. Costs were also reduced allowing for positive contribution margins.
- Bukalapak is expected to see sustainable profitability accompanied by revenue growth, with the marketplace recovering with improving product mix. BUKA’S “orphan” cash pile remains an issue but valuations are attractive.
Earnings Playbook | Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) | Troubling Rural B2C Business
- As we step into the earnings season focus on highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention analyzing companies part of the same sector or industry.
- Companies highlighted include Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN); Shriram Finance (SHFL IN); L&T Finance Holdings (LTFH IN) ; Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN) & Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN) .
- BAF’s negative commentary around rural B2C business is surprising and an area that warrants further investigation.
BABA’s Babies: They’re All Grown Now! Weibo the Twitter of China
- Weibo (9898 HK) is an inexpensive profitable large social media company in China
- Weibo generates a large cash flow which it uses to pay a 9% dividend yield
- Weibo has synergies with Alibaba’s core e-commerce business and fits well within its other media company ecosystem
Key Insights from Qualcomm’s Latest Data; Mediatek Taking Market Share?
- Qualcomm’s latest earnings came in at the high end of guidance with automotive revenue surging and mobile steady. We analyze QCOM results’ key implications for Mediatek.
- Qualcomm’s 2024E global handset market volume guidance remained unchanged vs. last quarter; however we believe Mediatek may have taken some market share in CY1Q24.
- Qualcomm confirmed Mediatek’s view regarding high-end phone demand strength right now, with AI capabilities the likely driver. Combining QCOM + Mediatek color suggests an AI-driven handset upgrade cycle ahead.
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-May-2024): Global changes affect Taiwan-China relations; business strategies evolve.
- Geopolitical shifts are impacting Taiwanese businesses in China, leading to strategic adjustments and shifts in orders to specialty IC foundries.
- CHPT anticipates a surge in probe card orders in the second half of 2024, while SK Hynix expects high demand for HBM in 2025 with production nearly sold out.
- Meredot’s technology allows for micromobility vehicles and robots to charge wirelessly simultaneously, while Taiwan’s Compal will have its first foreign CEO in the electronics industry.
Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) – We like the Focus on Oncology but Look for a Better Entry Point
- Cancer is the most common cause of death in Japan, and at 282.9 cases per 100 000 people, it ranks at the upper end of the global recorded range.
- In 2020, Daiichi Sankyo embarked on transforming to a leading oncology specialist in terms of new drug development.
- Daiichi Sankyo’s ADC pipeline comprises of six higher level drugs with a number of indications (sub-categories). This pipeline is part of a universe of 2499 oncology drugs in development.
Lam Research Corporation: NAND Market Recovery & Critical Opportunities That Lie Ahead! – Major Drivers
- Lam Research Corporation delivered a strong start to 2024, with the Q1 earnings surpassing the midpoint of their guidance.
- Although the business environment prospers as predicted, the company acknowledges ongoing risks and uncertainties reflected in SEC public filings.
- The quarter witnessed stability in Lam’s overcall 2024 revenue profile, with spending mainly driven by lithography shipments into China and enduring investment in domestic China.
Meta Platforms: How Will The Adoption of AI Tools and Strategic Bets Change The Game? – Major Drivers
- Meta Platforms Inc.’s Q1 shows strong headway with an increase in both product momentum and business performance reaching an estimated 3.2 billion active users per day, showcasing healthy growth particularly in the US market.
- The performance of the associated messaging app, WhatsApp, has been highlighted, reporting a steady increase in daily active users and message sends in the US. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
- In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.
Enphase Energy: Are Its Solar-Plus-Storage Products A Critical Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers
- Enphase Energy, a leading provider of energy management solutions, reported its first quarter 2024 financial results.
- For the quarter ending March 31, 2024, the company reported a total revenue of $263.3 million, a slight decrease compared with the previous quarter.
- The company also managed to ship approximately 1.4 million microinverters and 75.5 megawatt hours of batteries during this period, leading to a free cash flow of $41.8 million.
Lasertec (6920 JP): Orders Up, Guidance Down
- The share price has bounced back on strong 3Q orders and long-term optimism, but weak 4Q guidance calls the growth trajectory into question.
- Guidance, which has sales dropping to about half what they were a year earlier, is based on the expected timing of customer acceptance of delivered equipment. It could be conservative.
- At 75X EPS guidance for FY Jun-24, a rate of growth not visible in current trends has already been discounted. Current orders should translate into sales in 2026.
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