In today’s briefing:
- [Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players
- Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick
- Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Diagnosing a Return to Healthy Profits
- Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Dancing to a Digital Tune
- Silergy (6415.TT): Chinese Analog IC Could Raise up Prices by About 15%.
- AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer
[Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players
- Ex-China e-commerce conducted by Chinese e-commerce platform will rise from 2022 GMV of US$ 61bn to US$ 297bn in 2025, with Pinduoduo, Alibaba, SHEIN and TikTok leading the charge.
- These companies, however, are incubating their own last mile partners. The political uncertainty of Chinese e-commerce overseas is hindering development of the industry;
- We see J&T as the main beneficiary of Chinese e-commerce overseas, which must eventually undergo an infrastructure upgrade…
Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick
- Q1FY24 revenues of $4.7 billion, up 18% QoQ and up 16% YoY, and $100 million above guided high end, as already flagged on November 28
- Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ. This will once again be loss-making quarter to the tune of an EPS loss of 28 cents.
- Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still be a “recovery” year.
Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Diagnosing a Return to Healthy Profits
- Prodia (PRDA IJ) remains Indonesia’s relatively undiscovered diagnostics leader, with a strong market position, long-term relationships with the medical community, and an increasingly digital edge through its MyProdia app.
- The compamy continues to experience a high-base effect from COVID but has seen a dramatic increase in tests per visit as patients become increasingly helath conscious.
- Prodia (PRDA IJ) is significantly cheaper than its Indian comparables, trading on half the valuation, despite being a high-quality player tapping into a large increasingly health-conscious population.
Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Dancing to a Digital Tune
- Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stands out from its SOE peers in the progress it has made in digitising its business through the Livin’ mobile app and KOPRA for corporate customers.
- The bank continues to outperform in terms of loan growth and risk management, which is reflected in a higher ROE and lower credit costs as LAR continue to decline.
- Bank Mandiri should see a strong finish to the year well within guidance, with a healthy outlook for 2024 given its healthy capital position and competitive cost base.
Silergy (6415.TT): Chinese Analog IC Could Raise up Prices by About 15%.
- A recent news report speculates that Analog Devices (ADI US) is planning to raise prices by ~20%.
- Silergy Corp (6415 TT) is reportedly considering a price increase of over 15% in the Chinese market.
- We believe that now is a good time to invest in Silergy.
AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer
- Taiwan PC makers have been top performers in the market; some may worry that their rallies have become over-extended by too much AI PC excitement.
- We believe Dell may present a Long opportunity as the Long side to a Long/Short trade whereby one Sells Acer against it. Acer rose over 50% in December.
- Dell will report its results end-February. We would Long Dell vs. Short Acer ahead of the Dell earnings event. We see more upside surprise potential in Dell.
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