In today’s briefing:
- ASML. Maintaining 2024 Guidance Despite Sharp Decline In New Bookings
- China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK): Headwinds Persist
- Vinfast (VFS US) – Some Respite from the US
- PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) – An Attractive Tint to 2024 Prospects
- Braze Inc.: First-Party Data Investment As An Important Business Model! – Major Drivers
- Nike Inc.: A Tale Of Brand Elevation Through Greater Market Presence! – Major Drivers
- Arrow Electronics: What Are The Biggest Challenges In Its Transition To The IT-As-A-Service Model? – Major Drivers
- Teradata Corporation: How Long Will The Growth in Cloud Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Last? – Major Drivers
- Potential Domestic Rate Hike Impacts Highlighted in the BoJ’s Latest Financial System Report
- Mmg Limited 1208.HK – It’s Got It All – Copper, EV’s, and AI!
ASML. Maintaining 2024 Guidance Despite Sharp Decline In New Bookings
- ASML reported Q124 revenues of €5.3 billion, in line with expectations, down 27% QoQ and down 21% YoY.
- Guided Q224 for €5.95 billion, down ~23% YoY. This implies H224 will have to be much stronger than H124 in order to maintain full year 2024 guidance of flat YoY
- New order intake was €3.6 billion, down significantly from the €9.2 billion in the prior quarter, and challenging the narrative of a strong growth year in 2025
China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK): Headwinds Persist
- Since my previous insight on China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) in October 2023, the stock has declined 33%, and year-to-date, the stock has declined 13%.
- The company faces headwinds from continued overall weakness in Hainan duty free sales and potentially increased competition in Hainan.
- The company already announced preliminary 1Q24 results, with sales down 9% yoy and net profit flat. The company is trading at 18x 2024 earnings.
Vinfast (VFS US) – Some Respite from the US
- Vinfast (VFS US) released 1Q2023 results, with its revenues increasing three-fold YoY but falling QoQ due to the seasonal impact of Lunar New Year on both EVs and EV motorbikes.
- The company saw a significant pick up in its sales to the US and continued to increase its dealer network which should drive future sales along with new models.
- More than half of Vinfast sales were to related parties, which is an overhang in terms of the sustainability of its business models, whilst valuations remain above peers.
PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) – An Attractive Tint to 2024 Prospects
- PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) saw a pronounced pick up in sales in 4Q2023 and the ongoing benefit of lower raw material prices boosted margins to 5-year highs.
- The company expanded its distribution in 2023 and will continue in 2024, which coupled with new product launches, especially of economic products, should help to drive higher growth in 2024.
- PT Avia Avian continues to drive its express service, which also helps to push new product growth. Its market leadership and track record justify valuations with further support from dividends.
Braze Inc.: First-Party Data Investment As An Important Business Model! – Major Drivers
- Braze Inc. had a productive Q4 for the fiscal year 2024, reporting robust revenue growth and notable leaps in operational efficiency.
- The company generated $131 million in revenue, up 33% year-over-year and 6% quarter over-quarter.
- It is important to mention that these figures were achieved despite macroeconomic headwinds and tight scrutiny of budgets, reflecting the high ROI and enduring value of Braze’s customer engagement platform.
Nike Inc.: A Tale Of Brand Elevation Through Greater Market Presence! – Major Drivers
- In the Q3 2024 earnings, NIKE, Inc. outlined how it is driving growth despite not performing to its potential.
- The company is focusing on four key areas: a sharpened focus on sport, continuous product innovation, bolder and more distinctive brand marketing, and collaboration with wholesale partners to expand the marketplace.
- A significant measure of progress is the alignment of the organization to focus on the consumer and sport.
Arrow Electronics: What Are The Biggest Challenges In Its Transition To The IT-As-A-Service Model? – Major Drivers
- Arrow Electronics had a decent performance in 2023 despite the challenging macroeconomic conditions and inventory-related issues.
- Arrow Electronics managed to post a full-year revenue of $33.1 billion and a non-GAAP operating margin of 4.8%.
- The company also reported strong cash flow from operations, enabling the repurchase of approximately $750 million in shares over the year.
Teradata Corporation: How Long Will The Growth in Cloud Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Last? – Major Drivers
- Teradata Corporation, a leading hybrid multi-cloud analytics and data platform company, recently held its fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call, which indicates the company’s progress and future outlook in its sector.
- The company emphasizes its focus on customer satisfaction by delivering solutions for complex data and analytics problems.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Potential Domestic Rate Hike Impacts Highlighted in the BoJ’s Latest Financial System Report
- The Financial System Report published on April 18th focuses on the key Japanese bank issues, including the prospect of domestic rate hikes
- We focus primarily on the key take-aways from the BoJ report, in particular with relation to potential rate hikes; our key picks appear to be better geared than the average
- We highlight Resona, Mizuho and Concordia in the bigger caps, with positive views on Suruga, Gunma and Tokyo Kiraboshi in the regional banks
Mmg Limited 1208.HK – It’s Got It All – Copper, EV’s, and AI!
- Low-Cost producer of copper and zinc with two of the biggest ten mines in the world.
- Recent mine acquisition and increased production at existing mines will grow earnings.
- The supply and demand imbalance in copper will lead to higher prices.
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