Daily BriefsEquity Bottom-Up

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang… and more

In today’s briefing:

  • AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang…
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering
  • HSBC – Gap of USD15bn on Carrying Value Vs Fair Value of BoCom, as China Economy Weakens More
  • [Luckin Coffee(LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$43) TP Change]: Weak Earnings in 4Q23 but Better Outlook in 2024
  • Perfect Medical: Updates, Stock at 10% Dividend Yield Post Correction
  • Fabrinet: Initiation of Coverage – Revolution in Optics: Can They Dominate The AI Interconnect Market? – Major Drivers
  • CyberArk Software Ltd.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy Major Drivers
  • APAC Insurers Series (#4): How We See the 3 Insurance Stocks in 2024
  • LuxUrban Hotels (LUXH) : The Bed Sheets Should Be Made Out Of Red Flags
  • Delivery Hero Ag (DELHY) – Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023


AEM: When Inventory Fell off the Truck On the Way to Penang…

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM had a bizarre announcement on Sunday evening the 14th of January 2024: inventory was “lost” on the way to Penang from its Singapore factory.
  • Given AEM’s stellar corporate governance reputation up until now, this raises more than a few eyebrows: how is this even possible? 
  • 4Q23 results, due in a month, will feature a large restatement of FY23 results and lead to a major earnings loss. Any recovery is delayed into FY25.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan’s Election Result
  • AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei’s Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend
  • Alchip Technologies GDR Offering – Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year 

HSBC – Gap of USD15bn on Carrying Value Vs Fair Value of BoCom, as China Economy Weakens More

By Daniel Tabbush

  • HSBC holds 19% of BoCom and still carries it with a value of USD23.3bn despite the stock market valuation putting it closer to USD8.1bn on YE22 figures.
  • The bank cites its Value In Use testing as the justifiable reason for this gap, and this testing will include major assumptions like discount rates and long term growth rates.
  • Goodwill and other intangible charges were USD10.6bn in FY08, USD3.4bn in FY16, and USD7.4bn in FY19 for HSBC.

[Luckin Coffee(LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$43) TP Change]: Weak Earnings in 4Q23 but Better Outlook in 2024

By Eric Wen

  • In 4Q23, we expect Luckin Coffee revenue to increase 93% YoY to RMB7.1bn, and expect GPM/OPM to decline (5.8)/(1.3) ppt YoY to 19.0%/8.2%, respectively.
  • We cut 4Q23 operating income by 12%. In 2024, we raised our revenue estimate by 5% due to the speed up of new store opening schedule.
  • Furthermore, as price competition eased, we expect Luckin to offer less low-priced drinks, thus driving up OPM in 2024.

Perfect Medical: Updates, Stock at 10% Dividend Yield Post Correction

By Sameer Taneja

  • Negative China sentiment from where Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) derives about 15-20% of its revenue is causing the company’s share price performance to remain lackluster. 
  • Stock trades on a 10% dividend yield with 15% of the market capitalization in cash, despite the outlook for HK, where it derives >75% of its revenue, is slightly better.
  • With a 10-year average ROE of the business >40% and a 10.8x PE for FY24e, this stock is a dividend gem worth exploring. 

Fabrinet: Initiation of Coverage – Revolution in Optics: Can They Dominate The AI Interconnect Market? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Fabrinet, a leading provider of advanced manufacturing services.
  • The company reported new quarterly records for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS), while free cash flow also hit a new quarterly high.
  • Furthermore, this strong revenue growth contributed to record non-GAAP net income of $2 per share.

CyberArk Software Ltd.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on software-based security solutions provider, CyberArk.
  • The company had a strong Q3 2023 with its bookings growth accelerating, total bookings significantly outpacing the company’s guidance framework and seeing a rise in demand for its platform.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

APAC Insurers Series (#4): How We See the 3 Insurance Stocks in 2024

By Alec Tseung

  • PICC P&C’s Q3 underwriting profitability deteriorated due to typhoon/catastrophe-related losses in both motor and non-motor business.
  • Samsung Life’s new business growth momentum continued in Q3’23; new business CSM margin slightly improved QoQ.
  • Prudential disclosed limited details in its Q3 results but we can see the growth trend of new business volume and profits continuing in the quarter.

LuxUrban Hotels (LUXH) : The Bed Sheets Should Be Made Out Of Red Flags

By Bleecker Street Research

  • LuxUrban Hotels (NASDAQ: LUXH) is a Miami-based hotel lessee and operator.
  • Founded in 2017, LuxUrban (then called CorpHousing Inc) initially focused on the short-term corporate housing market, leasing and then re-leasing houses to business travelers.
  • The pandemic severely impacted demand in that market and in 2021 LuxUrban exited the corporate rentals space.

Delivery Hero Ag (DELHY) – Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Delivery Hero is a dominant player in the global food delivery industry, operating in 74 countries and serving over 2 billion people with more than 3 billion annual orders.
  • The company’s market leadership is crucial for generating strong economic profits in the food delivery sector due to the network effects and scale advantages it provides.
  • Delivery Hero’s extensive selection of restaurants and dense delivery fleet enables them to deliver food quickly, maintaining its temperature and at a lower cost compared to competitors. However, despite these advantages, its profit outlook is concerning, casting doubts on its high enterprise value.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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