In today’s briefing:
- Harita Nickel IPO: The Bear Case
- Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April
- Essential Metals (ESS AU)’s Scheme: Shareholders To Vote On 20 April. MinRes In The Wings?
- ABM Investama – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
- Aperam S.A. – 4Q2022 Results
- Vulcan Materials Company: Initiation of Coverage – Key Drivers & Growth Outlook
- Joint Development Agreement with Global Battery OEM Builds on Recent Battery Achievements
- Harita Nickel IPO – Capacity Ramp Ups Will Pay Dividends in the Long Run
Harita Nickel IPO: The Bear Case
- PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ), an Indonesian nickel play, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$1 billion. Book building ends on 24 March.
- In Harita Nickel IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
- The key elements of the bear case rest on weakening market sentiment, high single customer dependence, gross margin pressure, high cash burn, rising cash collection cycle and deteriorating cash conversion.
Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April
- The IE considers Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)/IGO Ltd (IGO AU) JV’s A$0.50 offer for Essential Metals (ESS AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is higher than its A$0.283-0.468 valuation.
- Odey, the recent substantial shareholder, hoped for a competing proposal which has not materialised. On 10 March, Odey sold down 21% of its holding at A$0.48 per share.
- Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1% and 28.4%, respectively.
Essential Metals (ESS AU)’s Scheme: Shareholders To Vote On 20 April. MinRes In The Wings?
- Back on the 9th Jan, small lithium player Essential Metals (ESS AU) entered into a Scheme with Tianqi Lithium JV, comprising Tianqi (9696 HK) (51%) and IGO (IGO AU) (49%).
- The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting tabled for the 20 April. The Independent Expert reckons the Scheme Consideration is fair. FIRB is no longer required.
- This is done and has traded tight from the onset.
ABM Investama – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess ABM Investama’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.
Aperam S.A. – 4Q2022 Results
- Aperam S.A. announced its financial results for the 4Q 2022.
- Overall, the fourth quarter developed in line with expectations.
- The import window has closed, leading imports back to the historical normal level. In the industrial side, energy sector is strong and O&G is recovering.
Vulcan Materials Company: Initiation of Coverage – Key Drivers & Growth Outlook
- This is our first report on Vulcan Materials Company, a renowned producer, distributor, and seller of construction materials.
- Vulcan’s last quarter was a major disappointment as it failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
- We initiate coverage on the stock of Vulcan Materials Company with a ‘Hold’ rating.
Joint Development Agreement with Global Battery OEM Builds on Recent Battery Achievements
- META announced a Joint Development Agreement (JDA) with a confidential global battery OEM for its NPORE® battery separator materials.
- The company is partnering with a top 10 battery OEM to jointly develop and adapt NPORE as a battery separator solution.
- Details were limited given the confidential nature of the JDA, but we will look for updates on the upcoming 4Q earnings call.
Harita Nickel IPO – Capacity Ramp Ups Will Pay Dividends in the Long Run
- PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) is looking to raise about US$650m in its Indonesian IPO.
- PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel, HN) is a vertically integrated pure-play nickel company operating on Obi Island, Indonesia.
- In this note, we will look at our earnings assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.
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