In today’s briefing:
- Origin Energy: ACCC’s Concerns And Brookfield’s Quid Pro Quo
- Viva Energy Placement – News Leak Helps but It’s Still a Big One to Digest
- Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners
- Empire Energy Group Ltd – More Flow-Rate Data Equals More Confidence
Origin Energy: ACCC’s Concerns And Brookfield’s Quid Pro Quo
- After Origin Energy (ORG AU) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy in late March, the ACCC approval process has played out in the public eye.
- And it hasn’t been all beer and Skittles for the Offerors. Not just on competition issues. But also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield’s future commitment to renewable generation.
- All the while, the ACCC recently blocked ANZ (ANZ AU)’s acquisition of Suncorp Bank, and Telstra Corp (TLS AU)/TPG Telecom (TPG AU)‘s mobile network sharing deal.
Viva Energy Placement – News Leak Helps but It’s Still a Big One to Digest
- Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)‘s parent, Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company
- The news of a possible selldown was leaked overnight in the local press and hence, the stock has corrected going into the placement.
- In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners
- We still believe it’s possible we’ve seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).
- As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn’t be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
- Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).
Empire Energy Group Ltd – More Flow-Rate Data Equals More Confidence
- Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is an oil and gas producer/developer, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) and US oil/gas production assets.
- EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
- The investment case is built around de-risking the development model as more evaluation data comes to hand and the latest data from Carpentaria-3H continues to build and shore up support for the economic case.
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