Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Orient Cement, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Exxon Mobil, Boss Energy, Chevron Corp, Energy Absolute, Goliath Resources , Natural Gas, Copper, Serica Energy and more

• In Oct-24, Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) acquired 46.8% stake in Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN) at Rs. 396 per share.
• Now Orient cement is trading at 20% discount to open offer price.
• This process can take approx. 2 months and can generate ~10-15% risk adjusted return by Jan-25.

• Short term supply shortage 
• US and EU demand uncertain
• Shipping cost spike in short term ahead of Trump’s tariff drive

• Exxon Mobil’s Q3 revenue fell by 0.8% YoY and net profit decreased by 5.1%. Revenue missed estimates by 4.2% but EPS exceeded expectations by 2.3%.
• Exxon Mobil’s Q3 upstream production rose by 24% YoY to 4.6 mboepd, driven by strong output in Guyana and the Permian basin and the acquisition of Pioneer.
• Exxon attributed its better-than-expected earnings in bottom-of-cycle conditions to structural cost savings, reduced expenses, high-return investments, and selective divestments.

• Project quickly shut down by company, but still moving forward
• Concerns about Chinese buying in Australia
• Waiting on cost release for project, anticipating higher costs due to increase in uranium price

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• Chevron’s Q3 revenue declined 6.3% YoY, while its net profit dropped 31.2%. Yet it beat its revenue and EPS estimates by 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively.  
• Chevron achieved a record Q3 output of 3.36 mboepd, up 7% YoY, driven by Permian growth. Full-year production growth is expected near the top of its 4-7% guidance.
• Chevron returned USD 4.7 billion in buybacks and USD 2.9 billion in dividends. Q4 is expected to see USD 1 billion in dividends and USD 4–4.75 billion in buybacks.

• EA’s Q3 results on 14-November was disappointing as expected on the declining EBITDA.
• Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap) still indicates the implied international credit rating of “B+” which gives us relative comfort for the credit.
• EA’s story rests on the usage of its network to extend debt maturity and sell assets, and not so much on cashflow which may be generated in the near term. 

• Goliath Resources provides investors exposure to gold-silver-copper resource exploration and leverage to an increasing in-ground inventory with discovery upside during a gold price market that reached new all-time highs.
• Downside limited by expected significant positive news flow into 2025.
• The Company’s 2024 exploration program was expanded to 38,125 m based on strong financial support.

• Cold Front in the US dominates Natgas Prices During next week another cold front will arrive in the upper part of the US.
• The temperature anomaly is quite negative – accordingly, natgas prices are currently on the rise.
• As seasonally remain bearish and these temperature anomalies occur often during the winter months, we’ll keep our eye on short opportunities in the market.

• Copper is central to global infrastructure and the transition to renewable energy.
• Zambia, a key player in the Central African Copperbelt, holds immense promise for copper investors, boasting some of the world’s richest geological assets.
• This white paper explores Zambia’s copper mining landscape, highlighting the interplay of global demand, supply challenges, and Zambia’s evolving mining ecosystem.

• The first compressor at Triton has been repaired and the platform is expected to be back online this week.
• This represents a few weeks’ delay but the restart will boost production materially.
• With the recent addition of the B6 well (>5 mboe/d net), total production was already over 50 mboe/d on 2 October.