Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Natural Gas, Secure Energy Services, Copper, Crude Oil, Albemarle Corp, Eog Resources, Marathon Oil, Alamos Gold and more

• European natural gas market facing uncertainty due to potential end of Russian gas flows through Ukraine
• North American LNG supply delays causing imbalance in global market
• Price relationship between summer 2025 and winter 2526 dependent on weather, supply sources, and storage refill mandates

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• Secure Energy Services (SES) operates in the waste management and energy services industry, focusing on recurring revenue and pipeline businesses.
• The company has potential for growth through acquisitions, with a strong focus on tuck-in acquisitions in the metals recycling sector.
• Despite potential risks such as safety concerns and regulatory changes, Secure Energy Services has a strong dividend yield, free cash flow yield, and growth prospects, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The Ministry of Finance has decided to end the 13% export tax rebate on copper effective December 1st, 2024. Copper semi-producers rely on this rebate to remain profitable. 
• Copper semi-producers might rush to sell their inventory by 1st December when changes take effect, which may affect prices and distort differentials on the SHFE-LME. 
• As long-term bulls, we like Southern Copper (SCCO US); under 100 USD/share, it is worth exploring. We also believe a long LME short SHFE trade in the short-term could work.  

• OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast by 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downgrade, while the EIA and IEA raised their forecasts by 7.6% and 7%, respectively.
• Although the EIA and IEA raised 2024 demand projections, they lowered 2025 estimates. They anticipate an oversupplied oil market in 2025, with supply growth expected to outpace demand.
• The EIA raised Q4 2024 oil price forecasts on geopolitical tensions and inventory withdrawals but cut post-Q2 2025 estimates due to expectations of rising inventories from higher output.

• The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending on 15/Nov, after remaining steady for three weeks in a row.
• For the week ending 08/Nov, US oil production inched down to 13.4m bpd after remaining at 13.5m bpd for four consecutive weeks.
• US energy producers added two rigs in New Mexico and one in Pennsylvania while cutting two rigs in Texas and one each in Oklahoma and Utah.

• Albemarle Corporation’s Q3 2024 earnings demonstrated strong execution with volumetric growth in its Energy Storage division and year-over-year EBITDA growth in its Specialties and Ketjen segments.
• The company’s liquidity and leverage metrics are strong, with Albemarle maintaining leverage well below covenant limits and demonstrating operating cash conversion of over 100%.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• EOG Resources’ third-quarter results for 2024 reflect a strong financial and operational performance, marked by substantial free cash flow and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
• The company generated $1.6 billion in adjusted net income and produced $1.5 billion in free cash flow.
• Notably, EOG has redistributed $1.3 billion of this cash back to shareholders, a strategy underpinned by a 7% increase in its regular dividend and an expanded share repurchase authorization by $5 billion.

• Marathon Oil Company recently reported its earnings for the first quarter of 2024, where several key insights about the company’s financial and operational achievements were shared.
• The company has maintained a strong financial and operational performance, reinforcing its position within the Energy and Petroleum sector.
• One of the highlights from the first quarter is Marathon Oil’s financial strategy, focused primarily on returning shareholder value.

• Alamos Gold Inc.’s third-quarter 2024 earnings presented a comprehensive review of the company’s operational and financial performance following its recent acquisition of the Magino mine from Argonaut Gold.
• This acquisition has significantly shaped the latest results, which reflect a mixed bag of outcomes from this transitional phase.
• The third quarter marked a record production milestone for Alamos, with 152,000 ounces of gold produced.