In today’s briefing:
- Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK): Low IPO Free Float Prevents Global Index Inclusion Despite $2.4B Mcap
- Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China “Special Action Consumption Plan”/Comex Spreads Stratospheric
- Iron Ore Tracker (24-Mar-2025): Iron Ore At Support Levels of 100 USD/Ton
- ECM Weekly (24th Mar 2025) -JX Advance, DN Solutions, Nanshan Aluminimum, Anthem, EAAA, Judo Capital
Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK): Low IPO Free Float Prevents Global Index Inclusion Despite $2.4B Mcap
- Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK) is forecasted to fail the fcap thresholds of both Global indices in 2025 due to low IPO free float.
- The free float is not expected to increase upon lock-up expiry because of strategic Cornerstone and substantial shareholdings.
- Probability of addition to Global indices increases for the first time in March and May 2026 following the expected omission of strategic Cornerstone holdings from filings thus free float.
Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China “Special Action Consumption Plan”/Comex Spreads Stratospheric
- Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China’s “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption” made early last week.
- Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.
- Coupled with weaker supply (Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term.
Iron Ore Tracker (24-Mar-2025): Iron Ore At Support Levels of 100 USD/Ton
- Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.
- China’s total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.
- We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level.
ECM Weekly (24th Mar 2025) -JX Advance, DN Solutions, Nanshan Aluminimum, Anthem, EAAA, Judo Capital
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) managed to hold on to its deal price, riding on the copper price resurgance.
- On the placements front, Judo Capital (JDO AU) was the only largish deal over the past week.
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