Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Lyondellbasell Indu Cl A, TotalEnergies, BP PLC, Forum Energy Technologies , KEIWA , Panoro Energy ASA, PetroTal, Sable Offshore, TMC the metals co, Alphamin Resources and more

• LyondellBasell Industries recently held its earnings call to discuss the financial results of the third quarter of 2024.
• The earnings report provides several insights into the company’s financial health, market positioning, and strategic advancements.
• The third quarter results indicate how LyondellBasell is navigating a challenging market environment marked by fluctuations in raw material costs and subdued demand in various sectors.

• In Q3, TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts by 6.4% but missed EPS estimates by 3.7%. Revenue and adjusted net income fell by 2.8% YoY and 37%, respectively.
• TotalEnergies’ average liquids price realisation fell 2.4% YoY, European refining margins dropped 84.7%, while LNG price realisation rose 3.7% YoY.
• TotalEnergies’ Q3 cash flow fell 27% YoY to USD 6.8 billion. It announced USD 2 billion in Q4 buybacks and a 0.79 euro/share interim dividend.

• BP’s revenue declined 11.3% YoY, missing estimates by 4.3%, while EPS fell 27.8% YoY, beating estimates by 3.8%. Underlying net profit dropped 31.2% YoY to USD 2.3 billion.
• BP’s Q3 performance was impacted by weak oil prices, lower refining margins, and soft trading results, leading to its lowest underlying net profit since Q3 2020.
• Total upstream production rose 3% YoY, with liquids production up 5%. BP also achieved 80% YoY growth in its EV charging business, selling 1 terawatt-hour of electricity globally.

• FET’s refinanced balance sheet and free cash flow potential position the company to consider alternatives to return cash to shareholders in 2025.
• Proceeds from a $100 million issuance of 10.5% senior secured bonds, together with cash on hand, funded the repayment of the seller term loan and will be used to fund the redemption of the remaining 2025 notes on December 8, 2024.
• The new notes have a tack-on feature in the indenture allowing for the issuance of up to $150 million of incremental notes.

• Cumulative Q3 FY12/24 revenue grew 20.4% YoY to JPY14.9bn, with operating profit up 115.2% YoY to JPY3.1bn.
• Revenue from optical sheets for laptops and tablets increased, while revenue from clean energy materials declined 2.9% YoY.
• Full-year FY12/24 targets revised upwards, but 2H forecasts lowered due to policy changes and increased costs.

• Gross production at Dussafu has now reached 40 mbbl/d, taking Panoro’s overall WI production to 12.5 mbbl/d from 9,401 bbl/d in 3Q24.
• Production could grow further with two wells to be completed by YE24.
• A Ruche well is also set for first oil in 4Q24.

• 3Q24 production was 15,203 bbl/d. This is in line with previous indications.
• The cash position at the end of September had been previously reported and there are no surprises in the rest of the balance sheet.
• With the end of the dry season, production has rapidly increased from 10.7 mbbl/d during the first week of October to >21 mbbl/d currently.

• SOC reported third quarter results were the Company’s operations used cash of approximately $31.6 million and are now stuck in disagreement with the California Coastal Commission since September.   
• SOC’s latest update with the Coastal Commission implies this could be a protracted process as SOC is now disclosing it would close the open excavations until there is an agreement
• We believe SOC is not likely to achieve meaningful success in getting the work done in a timely manner. 

Progress to an exploitation licence and commercialisation of The Metals Company’s (TMC’s) deep-sea assets is unchanged. The development of a strategy to leverage the group’s knowledge and capabilities in the deep sea to provide services to third parties offers the potential of a new and earlier revenue stream.

Alphamin announced record quarterly tin production of 4,917t (+22.1% quarter-on-quarter) in Q324 and EBITDA of US$91.6m (+68.8%) after the Mpama South mine completed its first full quarter of production at (or near) steady state. Alphamin’s consolidated annual financial statements and accompanying management discussion and analysis (MD&A) for FY24 will probably be released in early March. In the meantime, we are forecasting that EPS will continue to advance into FY25 and beyond under the influence of continued strength in the tin price and increasing efficiencies as both Mpama North and Mpama South develop (in particular) along strike.